Professor: Dr. Maria Socorro Gochoco-Bautista
Outline and References
I. Classical Monetary Theory
- Equation of Exchange and Quantity Theory of Money
Theory
Friedman, “Money: Quantity Theory,” International Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences, 1968, pp. 432-47. [See the e-Reserve Database]
__________, “The Quantity Theory of Money – A Restatement,” in Studies in the Quantity Theory of Money, 1956, pp. 3-24. [See the e-Reserve Database]
__________, “Quantity Theory of Money,” The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 1987, Vol. 4, pp. 3-20. [See the e-Reserve Database]
Fisher, The Purchasing Power of Money, 1911. link [print copy only]
M. Keynes, Monetary Reform, pp. 1-87 (up to but not including Part II on “The Theory of Purchasing Power Parity”). link [Open Access]
Clower, Monetary Theory ( a paperback selection of classic readings). link [print copy only]
Krugman, “There’s Something About Macro.” (in his website). link [Open Access]
Evidence
Friedman and A.J. Schwartz, A Monetary History of the United States, 1963, chap. 7 “The Great Contraction, 1929-33.” link [print copy only]
Cagan, Determinants and Effects of Changes in the Money Stock 1875-1960, 1965, chap. 6 “Cause and Effect Relation Between Money, Prices, and Output.” link [print copy only]
__________, Persistent Inflation, Historical and Policy Essays, Columbia University Press: New York, 1979. link [print copy only]
Andersen and J. Jordan, “Monetary and Fiscal Actions: A Test of Their Relative Importance in Economic Stabilization,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review 50 (November 1968), pp. 11-24. link [Open Access]
Carlson, “A Monetarist Model for Economic Stabilization: Review and Up-date,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review 68 (October 1986), pp. 18-28. link [Open Access]
Sims, “Comparison of Interwar and Postwar Business Cycles: Monetarism Reconsidered,” American Economic Review 70 (May 1980, pp. 250-57. link [Accessible via UPSE network only]
J.H. Stock and M.W. Watson, “Interpreting Evidence of Money-Income Causality,” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 2228 (April 1987). link [Open Access]
S. Gochoco-Bautista, “An Assessment of the Usefulness of Money for Policy in the Philippines,”
Asian Economic Papers, 5(1), (2006), 142-176. [See e-Reserve database]
Filardo, H. Genberg, and B. Hofman, “Monetary Analysis and the Global Financial Cycle: An Asian Central Bank Perspective,” BIS Working Paper no. 463, September 2014. link [Open Access]
2. Inflation and Revenue from Money Creation
Cagan, “The Monetary Dynamics of Hyperinflation” in M. Friedman (ed.), Studies in the Quantity Theory of Money, 1956, pp. 27-41 and 77-80 link [print copy only]
Bailey, “The Welfare Cost of Inflationary Finance,” Journal of Political Economy 64 (April 1956) pp. 93-110. link [Accessible via Dilnet only]
F. Muth, “Optimal Properties of Exponentially Weighted Forecasts,” Journal of the American Statistical Association 55 (1960), pp. 299-306; reprinted in R. Lucas and T. Sargent (eds.), Rational Expectations and Economic Practice (University of Minnesota Press, 1981), chap. 2. link [Accessible via UPSE network only]
J. Barro, “Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States,” American Economic Review 67 (March 1977), pp. 52-80 link [Accessible via UPSE network only] ; extended and up-dated in his Money, Expectations, and Business Cycles Essays in Macroeconomics (Academic Press 1981), chap. 5. [print copy only]
Friedman, The Optimum Quantity of Money and Other Essays, 1969, chap. 1. [print copy only]
Marty, “Inflation, Taxes, and the Public Debt,” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 10 (November 1978), pp. 437-52. link [Accessible via UPSE network only]
Mundell, “Inflation and the Real Rate of Interest,” Journal of Political Economy 71 (June 1963), pp. 280-83. link [Accessible via UPSE network only]
Tobin, “Money and Economic Growth,” Econometrica 33 (October 1965), pp. 671-84. link [Accessible via UPSE network only]
Sidrauski, “Rational Choice and Patterns of Growth in a Monetary Economy,” American Economic Review 57 (May 1967), pp. 534-44. link [Accessible via UPSE network only]
Metzler, “Wealth, Saving and the Rate of Interest,” Journal of Political Economy, 59 (April 1951), pp. 280-283. link [Accessible via UPSE network only]
Patinkin, Money, Interest, and Prices, pp. 34-77; 162-198; 622-629. [print copy only]
M.S. Gochoco-Bautista, “Testing for Structural Change: A Cointegration Approach,” Philippine Review of Economics and Business, Vol. XXXI, No. 1, June 1994. link [Open access]
M.S. Gochoco-Bautista, “Financing Decisions and the ‘Crowding Out’ Effect: The Case of the Philippines,”
Economics Letters, 32, (1990), 331-333. [see e-Reserve database]
- The Demand Function for Money Balances
M. Keynes, The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money, 1936, pp. 194-209. [print copy only]
Tobin, “The Interest Elasticity of Transactions Demand for Cash,” Review of Economics and Statistics 38 (August 1956), pp. 241-47. link [Accessible via UPSE network only]
_______, “Liquidity Preference as Behavior Toward Risk,” Review of Economics Studies 25 (February 1958), pp. 65-86. link [Accessible via UPSE network only]
Friedman (ed.), Studies in the Quantity Theory of Money, 1956, chap. 1 “The Quantity Theory of Money – A Restatement.” [print copy only]
Goldfeld, “The Demand for Money Revisited,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1973 no. 3, pp. 577-638. link [Accessible via UPSE network only]
Judd and J. Scadding, “The Search for a Stable Money Demand Function: A Survey of the Post-1973 Literature,” Journal of Economic Literature 20 (September 1982), pp. 993-1023. link [Accessible via UPSE network only]
Goodfriend, “Reinterpreting Money Demand Regressions” in K. Brunner and A. Meltzer (eds.), Understanding Monetary Regimes, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 22, (spring 1985), pp. 207-41. [print copy only]
S. Gochoco-Bautista, “An Assessment of the Usefulness of Money for Policy in the Philippines,”
Asian Economic Papers, 5(1), (2006), 142-176. [See e-Reserve database]
4. Loanable Funds Theory and Wicksell’s Cumulative Inflation
Wicksell, Lectures on Political Economy (English trans. 1935), Vol. II, pp. 190-208. [print copy only]
Cagan, The Channels of Monetary Effects on Interest Rates, 1972, chap. 2, “The Revenue from Money Creation and Its Disposition,” pp. 29-39 only. link [Open Access]
Haberler, Prosperity and Depression (any edition), chap. 8, sec. 1-3 (exposition of loanable funds vs. Keynesian system). [print copy only]
Bordo, M. and A. Schwartz. ISLM and Monetarism, NBER Working Paper No. 9713, 2003. link [Open Access]
Shin, “The Second Phase of Global Liquidity and Its Impact on Emerging Economies, “Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Keynote Address, November 2013. link [Open Access]
II. Rational Expectations Theory and Techniques
McCallum, B. and E. Nelson. “An Optimizing IS-LM Specification for Monetary Policy and Business Cycle Analysis,” Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, vol. 21 , No. 3, 1999, pp. 296-316. link [Accessible via UPSE network only]
F. Muth, “Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements,” Econometrica, July 1961, pp. 315-335. link [Open Access]
J. Shiller, “Rational Expectations and the Dynamic Structure of Macroeconomics Models: A Critical Review,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 4, January 1978, 1-44. [print copy only]
J. Sargent and N. Wallace, “Rational Expectations, The Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule,” Journal of Political Economy, 83 (April 1975), 240-254. link [Accessible via Dilnet only]
__________, “The Stability of Models of Money and Perfect Foresight,” Econometrica, 1973, 1043-1048; link [Accessible via Dilnet only] “Comment” by G. Calvo in Econometrica, Oct. 1977, 1737-1939 link [Accessible via Dilnet only]
Fischer, “Anticipations and the Non-Neutrality of Money,” Journal of Political Economy, 1979. link [Accessible via UPSE network only]
Barro, “Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?”, Journal of Political Economy, Nov./Dec. 1974, 1095-1117. link [Accessible via UPSE network only]
Poole, “Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instruments in a Simple Stochastic Macro Model,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, May 1970, 197-216. link [Accessible via UPSE network only]
M.S. Gochoco, Tests of the Money Neutrality and Rationality Hypotheses: The Case of Japan, 1973-1985,” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, November 1986, 458-466. link [Accessible via UPSE network only]
M.S. Gochoco, “Financing Decisions and the ‘Crowding Out’ Effect: The Case of the Philippines,” Economics Letters, 32 (1990), 331-333. [see e-Reserve database]
III. Open Economy
Basic Theory
Obstfeld and K. Rogoff, (1996), Foundation of International Macroeconomics, MIT Press. Chapters 8-10. [print copy only]
Open Economy National Income Accounting
Dornbusch, Open Economy Macroeconomics, chs. 1-2, Basic Books: New York, 1980. [print copy only]
Interest Rates and Exchange Rates in the Open Economy
S. Gochoco, “Financial Liberalization and Interest Rate Determination: The Case of the Philippines, 1981-1985,” Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 13, No. 2 (1991), 335-350. [See e-Reserve database]
Throop, “International Financial Market Integration and Linkages of National Interest Rates,” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Review 1994, Number 3, 3-18. link [Open Access]
Fabella, “The Debt-Adjusted Real Exchange Rate,” Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 15, No. 3, pp. 475-484, 1996. link [Accessible via Dilnet only]
Krugman and M. Obstfeld, International Economics: Theory and Policy, Harper Collins College Publishers: New York, 1994. [print copy only]
M.S. Gochoco-Bautista, “Periods of Currency Pressure: Stylized Facts and Leading Indicators,” Journal of Macroeconomics, 22(1), (2000), 125-158. link [Accessible via Dilnet only]
S. Gochoco-Bautista & Carlos C. Bautista, “Monetary Policy and Exchange Market Pressure:A Case Study of the Philippines, Journal of Macroeconomics, vol. 27, no. 1, 2005 pp. 153-168. link [Accessible via Dilnet only]
M.S. Gochoco-Bautista, “Comments on ‘Global and Regional Yield Curve Dynamics and Interactions: The Case of Some Asian Countries’ by Byung Yoon Bae and Dong Heon Kim”. International Economic Journal, 25(4), (2011), 709-710. [See e-Reserve database]
3. Monetary Framework and Anchors for Inflation
S.M. Collins, “On Becoming More Flexible: Exchange Rate Regime in Latin America and the Caribbean,” Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 51, 1996, pp. 117-138. link [Accessible via Dilnet only]
Eichengreen, “Can Emerging Markets Float? Should they Inflation Target?” UC Berkeley unpublished, Feb. 2002. link [Open Access]
A. Frankel, “Monetary Regime Choices for a Semi-Open Country” Center for Pacific Basin Monetary and Economic Studies, Economic Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper No. PB93-02, February 1993. link [Open Access]
Ghosh, A.M. Gulde, J.D. Ostry, and H. Wolf, “Does the Exchange Rate Regime Matter for Inflation and Growth?”, IMF Economic Issue Series #2, 1996. link [Open Access]
S. Gochoco, “Targets, Instruments, and Monetary Policy in an Open Economy: A GARCH Application,” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper, 1991. [no download available]
S. Gochoco, ”Are Money, Interest Rates, Output and the Exchange Rates Cointegrated? Implications for Monetary Targeting,” Philippine Review of Economics and Business, September 1993. link [Open Access]
Bernanke, B., Laubach, T., Mishkin , F. and A. Posen. Inflation Targeting, Lessons from International Experience. Princeton University Press, 1999. [No print copy]
Glick, M. Hutchison and R. Moreno, “Is Pegging the Exchange Rate a Cure for Inflation? East Asian Experiences,” WP 995-08, 1995. [No print copy]
“Time to Fix?” The Economist, July 30, 1994, p.65.
P.T. Quirk, “Exchange Rate Regimes as Inflation Anchors,” Finance & Development, March 1996, pp. 42-45. link [Open Access]
M.S. Gochoco-Bautista, “An Assessment of the Usefulness of Money for Policy in the Philippines” Asian Economic Papers, vol. 5, No. 1, (Winter 2006), pp. 142-176. [See e-Reserve database]
- Capital Flows and Monetary Policy
Osbstfeld. “International macroeconomics: beyond the Mundell-Fleming model,” IMF Staff Papers, Special Issue, vol. 47, 2001, p. 1-39. link [Open Access]
de Dios, “Recent Financial Flows: Causes and Consequences,” Towards Sustained Growth R. Fabella and H. Sakai (eds.), Institute of Developing Economies, Tokyo, 1995. [See e-Reserve database]
Glick and R. Moreno, “Responses to Capital Inflows in Malaysia and Thailand,” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Weekly Letter, No. 95-14, 1995. [See e-Reserve database]
Kletzer and M. Spiegel, “Speculative Capital Inflows and Exchange Rate Targeting in the Pacific Basin: Theory and Evidence,” Paper presented at the Conference on Managing Capital Flows and Exchange Rates: Evidence from the Pacific Basin, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 1996. link [Open Access]
Jang-Yung Lee, “Sterilizing Capital Inflows,” IMF Economic Issues Series #7, 1996. link [Open Access]
Mundell, The International Economics, NY: MacMillan, 1967. link [Open Access]
Donrbusch, “Flexible Exchange Rates and Capital Mobility,” in Open Economy Macroeconomics, Ch. 11, NY: Basic Books, 1980. [no electronic file available]
Edison and C. M. Reinhart, “Stopping Hot Money”, Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 66, 2001, pp. 533-555. link [Accessible via Dilnet only]
Hanson, “Opening the Capital Account: A Survey of Issue and Results,” The World Bank Working Papers WPS 901, May 1992. link [Open access]
Conference Papers: Managing Capital Flows and Exchange Rates: Lessons from the Pacific Basin, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 1996. [not available]
M.S. Gochoco-Bautista, J. Jongwanich, and J.W. Lee, “How Effective are Capital Controls in Asia?”, Asian Economic Papers, 11(2), (2012), 122-143. [See e-Reserve database for Journal article ; working paper version link here]
M.S. Gochoco-Bautista and N.R. Sotocinal, “Rethinking Capital Account Liberalization” chapter in The Oxford Handbook of the Economics of the Pacific Rim, I. Kaur and N. Singh, editors, Oxford University Press, (2014). [See e-Reserve database]
M.S. Gochoco-Bautista, To What Extent Should Capital Flows Be Regulated?”forthcoming (2015), in Wing Thye Woo, Masahiro Kawai, Jong Wha Lee, and Jeffrey Sachs, eds. A New Global Reserve System for a Transformed Global Economy, MIT Press. (Earlier version published in The Future Global Reserve System: An Asian Perspective, Asian Development Bank, (2010), 5-6). link [Open access]
Shin, “The Second Phase of Global Liquidity and Its Impact on Emerging Economies, “Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Keynote Address, November 2013. (Downloadable) link [Open access]
M.S. Gochoco-Bautista and C. Rhee, “Capital Controls: A Pragmatic Proposal” forthcoming (2015), in Hyun Song Shin, Dongsoo Kang, and Andrew Mason, eds. Financial Regulations on International Capital Flows and Exchange Rates, Edward Elgar. (Earlier version published in the Asian Development Review, Vol. 29, No. 1, (June 2012), 90-94). link [Open access]
5. Financial Crisis
Eichengreen, B. and K.H.O’Rourke, 2009. “A Tale of Two Depressions.” VOX. link [Open access]
Almunia, Miguel, Agustin S. Benetric, Barry Eichegreen, Kevin H. O’Rourke, Gisela Rua (2009). “The effectiveness of fiscal and monetary stimulus in depressions”, VoxEU.org. 18 November. link [Open access]
Baldwin, Richard (eds) (2009). The Great Trade Collapse: Causes, Consequences and Prospects, VoxEU.org Ebook, 27 November. link [Open access]
Benanke, B.S. 2000. Bernanke, B.S. and I. Mihov, 2000. “Deflation and Monetary Contraction in the Great Depression: An Analysis by Simple Ratios,” In B.S. Benanke, Essays on the Great Depression, Princeton: Princeton University Press. [See e-Reserve database]
Bordo, M.D. B. Eichengreen, D. Klingebiel and M.S. Martinez-Peria. 2001. “Is the Crisis Problem Growing More Severe?” Economic Policy 32: 51-82 link [Accessible via UPSE network only]
Chor, Davin and Kalina Manova (2010). “Off the cliff and back? Credit conditions and international trade during the global financial crisis”, VoxEU org. 15 February. link [Open Access]
Paul, Krugman, “The Great Recession versus the Great Depression,” Conscience of a Liberal (20 March 2009). link [Open Access]
Doug Short, “Four Bad Bears,” DShort: Financial Lifecycle Planning (20 March 2009).
Furman and J. Stiglitz, “Economic Crises: Evidence and Insights from East Asia,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1998 #2, pp. 1-114. link [Open Access]
Krugman, “Analytical Afterthoughts on the Asian Crisis.” [See e-Reserve database]
M.S. Gochoco-Bautista and R. Reside, “Contagion and the Asian Financial Crisis,” The Manchester School, Vol. 67, No. 5 Special Issue 1999, pp. 207-227. [See e-Reserve database]
M.S. Gochoco-Bautista, “Periods of Currency Pressure: Stylized Facts and Leading Indicators,” Journal of Macroeconomics, Winter 2000. link [Accessible via Dilnet only]
Moreno and R. Glick, “Is Money Still Useful for Policy in East Asia?” Paper presented at the 14th Pacific Basin Central Bank Conference, Seoul, Nov. 14-17, 2001. [See e-Reserve database]
Boorman et. al., “Managing Financial Crises: The Experience in East Asia”, IMF Working Paper 100/107, June 2000. link [Open Access]
A. Calvo and C. M. Reinhart, “Fear of Floating,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 107. (May 2002), pp. 379-408. link [Accessible via Dilnet only]
Eichengreen and R. Hausmann, “Exchange Rates and Financial Fragility,” NBER Working paper 7418, Nov. 1999. link [Open Access]
Hausmann, U. Panizza, and E. Stein, “Why Do countries Float the Way they Float?” Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 66, 2001, pp. 387-414. link [Accessible via Dilnet only]
Debuque-Gonzales and M.S. Gochoco-Bautista, “The Philippines-10 Years After the Crisis,” IDS Bulletin, vol. 38, No. 4, (July 2007), pp. 72-95. [See e-Reserve database]
Litan, R., ed. The World in Crisis: Insights from Six Shadow Financial regulatory Committees from Around the World. Wharton Financial Institutions Center, University of Pennsylvania, 2011 link [Open Access]
6. Asset Prices and Monetary Policy
Bernanke, B.S. and M. Gertler, “Should Central Banks respond to movements in asset prices?” American Economic Review, vol. 91. no. 2, 2001, pp. 253-257. link [Open Access]
Cecchetti, S., “Measuring the macroeconomic risks posed by asset price booms,” NBER Working Paper no. 12542, 2006. link [Open Access]
M.S. Gochoco-Bautista, “Asset Booms and fat tails in East Asia: Systematic or asymmetric risks?”, Journal of Macroeconomics, vol. 30, No. 4, pp. 1617-1640. link [Accessible via Dilnet only]
M.S. Gochoco-Bautista, Asset Price Booms, “Fat Tails and Monetary Policy in East Asia,” Asian Economic Papers, 8(1), (2009), 69-88. [See e-Reserve database]
Financial stability, Minsky’s Moment, The Economist, July 30, 2016. link [Open Access]