Browsing by Author "Alhamid, Sharifah Seedah"
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Item Restricted ASEAN demand for Singapore goods and effect of ASEAN tariff preferences(1982-05) Alhamid, Sharifah Seedah; Jurado, Gonzalo M.This study looks into the effects of trade liberalization among ASEAN countries on Singapore exports. The study also estimates the import demand function and price and income elasticities of demand of each of the other ASEAN countries by commodity groups at one-digit level of SITC. On the basis of the estimated elasticities it also calculates the magnitude of the possible expansion of Singapore exports to each of the other ASEAN countries as tariffs in these countries are reduced in accordance with Preferential Tariff Arrangements, using as a basis of calculation the countries' 1979 import levels. The estimates of the elasticities are obtained by means of simple and multiple least-squares regression, using the ratio of the commodity's own price to the price of the competing domestic commodity and real income as the explanatory variables. The paper concludes that the effects on Singapore exports of ASEAN Preferential Tariff Arrangements are negligible for the following reasons. Firstly the price elasticities are low and, in some cases, the price coefficients are not statistically significant. Secondly, the tariff reductions on goods imported from Singapore by the other ASEAN countries are concentrated on items with less than 20 per cent tariff rates. Thirdly, compared to prices variables, income variables appear to be the stronger stimulant to export expansion of Singapore goods to the ASEAN countries, as shown in the high income elasticities. It can be said that economic development as proxied by income growth in the other ASEAN countries is the main constraint to trade expansion rather than the tariff. Finally, the existing trade patterns of ASEAN countries and their dependence on developed countries are contributory to the retardation of trade expansion among them.