Browsing by Author "Dela Cruz, Frabert Ace E."
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Item Restricted Modelling the oil price–exchange rate nexus: the Philippine case(2023-01-16) Dela Cruz, Frabert Ace E.; Reyes, Eirene Gillian M.; Alburo, Florian A.This paper examines the impact of oil prices on the PHP/USD nominal exchange rate. The literature specifies two channels through which the effects of oil price shocks are transmitted to changes in exchange rates. In the case of the Philippines, one can see that the “terms of trade” channel is the dominant effect. Using daily oil prices and PHP/USD exchange rate data from January 2, 2003 to October 24, 2022, this study employed the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model to determine the effects of oil prices on the exchange rate. The results show that a 10% increase in oil prices is associated with a 0.13% Philippine peso appreciation relative to the US dollar and is statistically significant. This finding is consistent with the “terms of trade” channel, where oil price increases are expected to be associated with exchange rate appreciation for countries with energy-intensive non-tradable sectors.