Browsing by Author "Ducanes, Geoffrey M."
Now showing 1 - 20 of 25
Results Per Page
Sort Options
Item Restricted Adult labor supply effects the Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program: a cross-sectional analysis(2013-10) Castro, Adrian Christian S.; Nieves, John Paulo G.; Ducanes, Geoffrey M.The country's CCT program, the Pantawid Pamilyang Filipino Program is primarily designed to break the inter-generational transfer of poverty by way of giving cash transfers to beneficiary households under the condition that parents regularly send children to school, visit the local healthcare facility and attend parenting seminars. CCTs around the world have been monitored for possible adult labor supply effects as similar past programs have been inducing an income effect among beneficiaries. There have been empirically observed employment effects among Brazil's CCT while there were no significant effects in other CCT's such as in Mexico. Using the Annual Poverty Indicators Survey of 2011, we find that there are positive employment effects for beneficiaries, whether parent or non-parent adult with the exception of women. We also find lower wages for CCT beneficiaries, possibly indicating a shift from formal to more informal work. Such effects were finally observed to be weaker in households belonging to poorer income groups, implying better program outcome compared to those in less poor income groups.Item Restricted An analysis of push and pull factors affecting Philippine OFW deployment using the gravity model of international trade(2013-10) Reyes, Jessica Louise DJ.; Romo, Vivien Mae M.; Reside, Renato Jr. E.; Quimbo, Stella A.; Ducanes, Geoffrey M.This paper aims to determine whether country-specific macroeconomic factors have significant effects on the level of Overseas Filipino Worker deployment across time. Labor flight from the Philippines over the years has proved to have some considerable positive and negative effects on the domestic economy as well as on the society as a whole, making it a relevant topic to work on. The top twelve destination countries in the course of eight years from 2004 up to 2011 were considered for this study. Using the Gravity Model of International Trade, macroeconomic variables from both the home country and the destination countries such as unemployment, destination country's distance from the Philippines, exchange rates, GDP per capita differences, population age, visa caps as well as a proxy variable to account for the global financial crisis of 2008-2009 were taken into account through a log-linear regression analysis The regression results show that foreign unemployment rates, GDP per capita differences, distance, peso exchange rates, the foreign population age and the presence of visa caps were significant factors for the considerable volume of labor flight in the country per year. The results show that lower unemployment in the foreign countries and an older population would mean more available jobs. This makes them more attractive countries, thus pulling in more migrant workers. GDP differences also proved to be highly significant, with the results showing that the higher the GDP differences between the Philippines and a destination country, the higher the incidence of migration to that destination. It just shows that overseas workers are in search of better income schemes, The following are thus possible areas for policy makers to work on; to improve undesirable situations here in the Philippines to better take care of its labor force.Item Restricted An assessment of the predective power of the stock market and labor market Nexus in the Philippines(2015-06) Pornillos, Paul Ryan H.; Triguero, Rafael G.; Solon, Orville Jose C.; Ducanes, Geoffrey M.This paper examines the predictability of the classical inflation - unemployment trade-off in the Philippines using their interaction with essential stock market and macroeconomic variables. Amidst the improving capital environment in the country as result of enhanced political governance and other factors that reduce the level of risks to financial development, it is worth noting what the implications of these are on other economic indicators as well as the overall economy in general. This study inspects quarterly macroeconomic and stock market data . from 2000 to 2014 and estimated different models to test the interactions between these variables and devise an alternative method for forecasting inflation and unemployment. Results show that the ARMAX estimation outperforms naive models in forecasting inflation while VAR seems to be the most effective method in forecasting unemployment ·in an eight- quarter horizon.Item Restricted Analysis of the determinants of public tertiary enrollment in the Philippines(2017-06) Adona, Ann Jillian V.; Ducanes, Geoffrey M.Enrollment patterns in higher education, arising from millions of private student decisions, are analyzed to determine the drivers of participation in public tertiary education in the Philippines. Students in public higher education institutions (HEIs) are subsidized regardless of family income, however, enrollment since 1999 has been dominated by students from non-poor families; by 2014, those from the poorest households comprised only 12 percent of the student population. This research assesses the distribution of tertiary education subsidies dynamically with a benefit incidence analysis for the years 2011, 2013, and 2014; and estimates the determinants of enrollment using a multinomial logit model for 1999 and 2011. It finds that the distribution of benefits is regressive across years, and the advantages of higher levels of (economic, social) capital have manifested in increased probability of public tertiary enrollment. While in 1999, income is not a significant determinant of enrollment, by 2011, outcome probabilities varied by income groups. On average, the probability of enrolling in public university for a student descending from the lowest income quintile has decreased, but the odds for the richest quintiles improved. The effects of income, employment status, and other characteristics on enrollment probabilities suggest that subsidies in tertiary education benefit those already advantaged.Item Restricted Are the odds in our favor?: predicting the probability of a recession in the Philippines(2014-12-17) Atienza, Michael Angelo H.; Dy, Lauren Danielle L.; Ducanes, Geoffrey M.; Daway-Ducanes, Sarah Lynne S.In this paper, various financial variables are examined as predictors of a recession in the Philippines. Similar to Estrella and Mishkin's model for the United States and Germany, lagged term spread proved to be an important predictive variable for the annual time frame. Furthermore, the growth rate of money supply, real interest rates, inflation, and U.S. GDP growth rate exhibits predictive power. For the quarterly case, exchange rate, term spread, GDP growth rate, and foreign direct investment inflow shows predictive power. In-sample predictions for both annual and quarterly time frames show promising results for both weak and strong recession signals. Furthermore, for the quarterly case, the U.S. GDP growth rate is able to predict out-of-sample results with weak signals. In the annual case, out-of-sample predictions were not possible because of the lack of incidence of recessions in the dataset.Item Restricted Can the IT-BPM industry be an alternative for Filipino migrant workers? Evidence from merged labor force and income expenditure data(2016-01) Arellano, Clarisa Joy A.; Ducanes, Geoffrey M.In the past decade, the Philippines experienced a surge in export-oriented employment as seen in the sizeable supply of migrant workers and outsourced service providers. Using merged family income and expenditure, and labor force surveys, this study i) describes the profile of outsourcing employees and overseas workers, and ii) applies a multinomial logistic regression model to answer whether employment in the outsourcing sector can serve as a viable alternative to overseas employment. The results provide evidence of similarities in the profile of outsourcing and overseas workers, as well as the high likelihood of Filipino migrant workers preferring outsourcing work as an alternative employment.Item Restricted Default risk in microfinance: an analysis of the institutional constraints of microfinance organization in the Philippines(2013-10) Crisostomo, Ma. Charmaine R.; Quines, Mariel Angeli R.; Ducanes, Geoffrey M.; Reside, Renato Jr. E.Microfinance serves to alleviate poverty by making credit available for the lower income members of the society. As microfinance continues to grow and develop in the recent years, more and more commercial banks and traditional microfinance institutions emerge, with goals of poverty alleviation and self-sustainability. In line with this, our study aims to determine the institutional factors that significantly affect the default risks faced by microfinance organizations. Using longitudinal data from several micro finance organizations in the country, we used a fixed effects regression and a random effects regression to determine the impact of institutional structures of microfinance organizations with default risk. This study has identified that the institutional structures that are associated with lower default risks are market-based structures that make microfinance organizations more competitive in the financial system. Further analysis also showed that the certain social goals in microfinance are not associated with increased default risk of micro finance organizations.Item Restricted Determinants of self-rated poverty in the Philippines at the national and household levels(2015-06) Sto Domingo, Jose Ricardo Pineda; Sundiam, Samantha Marie Cabrera; Ducanes, Geoffrey M.This study identifies the core determinants of self-rated poverty in the Philippines, both at the national and household levels; -With such a subjective topic that breaches on a dynamic and multidimensional aspect of poverty, analyzing significant economic and socio-demographic factors can help policymakers deeply understand and effectively address one of the Philippine's long-standing problems. Using an Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag model and a Least Squares Regression model for the macroeconomic variables, it is found that Consumer Price Index, growth rate of real Gross Domestic Product, Underemployment Rate, and Unemployment Rate have significant impact on self-rated poverty. Using an Ordered Logit Regression Analysis for the household-related variables, it is found that Educational Attainment of Household Head and Locale negatively influence poverty perception. Moreover, results show inconclusive data on Overseas Cash Remittances, for which further research is strongly recommended. Lastly, complications were found within the macroeconomic variables, notably with Consumer Price Index, because of the nature of the data.Item Restricted Does bitcoin behave like a traditional currency?(2014-12) Ferreria, Janette; Robles, Brian; Ducanes, Geoffrey M.; Daway-Ducanes, Sarah Lynne S.Bitcoin is the first in a new class of technological innovations known as cryptocurrencies. It enables low-cost, secure transactions around the world without the need for a central bank or similar agency. However, Bitcoin has been criticized as it does not fulfill the classical functions of a traditional currency. Additionally, its peer-to-peer decentralized design is a unique development that bears great contrast to established fiat currencies. The novel but volatile nature of Bitcoin has led to much consternation regarding its classification and subsequent regulation. As such, this study attempts to analyze the historical prices of Bitcoin and other currencies in order to determine whether its behavior is significantly different from traditional fiat currencies. Using four empirical methods, (i) price correlations, (ii) Granger causality tests, (iii) stationarity tests, and (iv) cointegration tests, the study seeks to determine whether Bitcoin can be considered part of the same market as its traditional counterparts. The results show that Bitcoin behaves differently from fiat currencies and should be treated as an asset belonging to a separate market.Item Restricted Forecasting electricity demand in the Philippine industrial sector(2017-07) Ang, Ricardo B. III; Ducanes, Geoffrey M.This paper develops forecasting models for Philippine industrial electricity demand using error correction (EC) models. The demand models use output, price, employment, financial development, and temperature as explanatory variables. Electricity demand forecasting models generally consider limited driver variables such as output and price. However, electricity is always used in combination with other factors to produce a good or service. Hence, in addition to the level of output produced, we can expect the demand for electricity to be also influenced by its interaction with labor, capital, and the production technology. This paper accounts for this by including the levels of employment and financial development in the model. Using annual time series data from 1985 to 2015, this paper estimates short- and long-run elasticities of demand, and fifteen-year forecasts (under different scenarios) are performed for policy recommendation.Item Restricted Forecasting residential electricity demand in the Philippines using an error correction model(2017-07) Santos, Angelo Gabrielle F.; Ducanes, Geoffrey M.This study uses an Error Correction Model (ECM) to forecast residential electricity demand in the Philippines using household final consumption expenditure, residential electricity price, and temperature as explanatory variables. Results show that there is a long-run relationship between household final consumption expenditure and residential electricity demand. Estimates from the ECM are consistent with economic theory, and the model passed standard diagnostic and parameter stability tests. Forecast performance based on within-sample and out-of-sample forecasts of the ECM is also shown to be superior relative to a benchmark Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (ARDL). Simulations show that by 2040, residential electricity consumption will range from 42,500 GWh based on a weak income growth scenario and 61,942 GWh based on a combined changes scenario.Item Restricted Gender inequality in Philippine higher education(2017-07) Brillantes, Karen Dominique B.; Ducanes, Geoffrey M.The Philippines is among the most gender-equal nations in the world, having closed gender gaps in several dimensions of human development, one of which is education. Consistent with the trend worldwide, more Filipino women than men now are participating in higher education, overturning the history of male dominance in the sector. This study argues that this, however, does not suffice to claim that Philippine higher education has become a gender-equal sphere as access statistics could be masking less apparent forms of gender inequality. This study tries to determine the extent of gender equality in Philippine higher education in terms of participation and gender segregation in college disciplines, looking into how the latter relates to women’s labor market participation. Drawing data from the 2014 Annual Poverty Indicator Survey and 2014 Labor Force Survey, this study also empirically determines (1) household-related factors possibly generating the difference between men and women’s college enrollment and number of post-secondary years of schooling, and (2) the monetary returns to college disciplines that men and women pursue. Overall, this study finds that women’s advances in college participation is undermined by gender disparities in another aspect of higher education, which have consequences on their economic outcomes.Item Restricted Impact of extracurricular leadership positions on the academic performances of UP School of Economics students(2014-12-17) Cabrera, Godfrey Anton J.; Lamarca, Rino Alvaro L.; Ducanes, Geoffrey M.This study examines whether extracurricular activities exert a toll on students' academic achievements. The sample used were students from the 5 past batches of the University of the Philippines School of Economics. Surveys and waivers were sent out to past and present officials of the student council and organization executive committee members. Their grades were also collected. The students were grouped into five categories: students who have held or currently hold official positions in the student council or one of the organizations; students who ran for office but did not win; students who were already elected when taking up their introductory classes; students who were elected after taking up the said classes; and students who have not held and have not run for office. Two methods were used. The first method uses linear regression analysis to compare the students' grades in higher economics courses by group while controlling for their grades in lower economics courses. The second method uses the student's grades in their earlier introductory courses to predict their grades in higher courses. Then the the predicted grades were compared to the actual grades and the number of those who exceeded and those who fell short of their predicted grades were tallied by group. The simple regression did not come up with significant results. The second method, which used assigned predicted grades showed that more of those elected students did not reach their potential grades.Item Restricted Impacts of storms and typhoons on rice production in the Philippines(2013-10) Casanova, Nathaniel N.; Castillo, Kim Edbonn C.; Ducanes, Geoffrey M.This study estimates the impact of storms and typhoons on paddy rice productivity and on the net incomes of rice farmer. This study uses fixed-effects regression to estimate and determine the magnitude and directional of the impact of storm and typhoons on paddy rice productivity utilizing the cost and returns matrices of the Rice-Based Farm Household Survey (RBFHS) and typhoon data from the unpublished records of PAGASA. It has been found that: (1) there is no conclusive evidence that the number of storms and typhoons exhibit a significant impact on rice productivity and farmer incomes, (2) the intensity of a storm exhibit lagged effects and leads to a positive significant impact on rice productivity and farmer incomes in later periods, and (3) the intensity of a storm and typhoons has an immediate negative impact on paddy rice productivity and rice farmer incomes.Item Restricted Is high religiosity linked to less cheating?; evidence from experimental data(2015-05) Rodriguez, Regine Beatrice T.; Yu, Jhett Chantl C.; Ducanes, Geoffrey M.This study examines the link between religiosity and academic dishonesty through experimental data. The researchers randomly divided a sample of students into two groups and asked them to answer a simple matrix addition test. After the test, students in the first group were given the liberty to self-check their answers and were asked to report their scores. The students in the second group were told to submit their test papers, which were then checked by the researchers. In effect, the students in the first group were placed in an environment with the opportunity to cheat. After the experiment, students were asked to answer a religiosity survey that measured their level of religiosity. After which, the test scores were regressed against religiosity, the opportunity to cheat, the interaction of the two, as well as additional control variables. Results showed a significant increase in scores under the first (treated) group or those with the opportunity to cheat, holding religiosity constant, thus indicating statistical evidence of cheating via over-reporting of scores. More importantly, however, the interaction between religiosity and the treatment group dummy was significantly negative, indicating a lower tendency to cheat for those with higher religiosity scores.Item Restricted Magtanim ay 'di bito: a study on the educational impacts of the Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Progran on agricultural and non-agricultural families(2015-06) Aguila, Andrea B.; Gaviola, Ana Patricia V.; Ducanes, Geoffrey M.Item Restricted Patterns and determinants of poverty transitions in the Philippines: a panel data analysis(2013-11) Ablaza, Christine Marie J.; Ducanes, Geoffrey M.This paper examines the factors underlying household poverty transitions in the Philippines. Using a matched panel dataset of the Annual Poverty Indicators Survey and the Labor Force Survey, the study finds that the determinants of poverty entry and exit are not symmetric. Becoming poor is associated with the age of the household head, overall household size, the sector of employment, and access to remittances. Conversely, becoming non-poor is correlated with the square of the household head's age, household size, level of human capital and class of worker. These findings suggest that poverty may be better tackled from a dynamic perspective. Moreover, the absence of symmetry in the correlates highlights the need for a more careful and deliberate targeting of government programs.Item Restricted Remittances, financial sector development and growth: the Philippine case(2014-12-17) Go, Stefanie Ann B.; Hilario, Celina Marie S.J.; Ducanes, Geoffrey M.; Daway-Ducanes, Sarah Lynne S.Remittances play an important role in the Philippine economy, with remittances as one of its major sources of capital inflows. The macroeconomic impact of remittances in the country is thus undeniable, and must be further looked into. Previous findings on the impact of remittances on growth have been inconclusive or either negative, and so have been its relationship with financial sector development. An empirical analysis of the relationship of remittances, financial sector development and growth will be conducted, with the hypothesis that remittances significantly impact growth indirectly when coursed through the financial sector. This will be done through analysis of data from 1983 to 2013 on the annual level and from 2002 to 2013 on the quarterly level through ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and two stage least squares regression to correct for endogeniety problems. Moreover, a vector auto regression analysis will also be employed to provide further evidence. Findings show that the story of remittances in the Philippines took a shift possibly after 1998. We find that remittances have an indirect effect on growth in the short run, in that it is coursed through the financial sector. On the annual, however, remittances have a direct effect on growth and the said effect depends on the level of financial sector development. Continuous efforts by the government, financial institutions and households must be made to further encourage savings and investments to maximize the potential of capital inflows, for these efforts would not be in vain, especially in the Philippines.Item Restricted So you passed the UPCAT ... now what? a study on choice and happiness as determinants of human capital development(2015) Bautista, Paulo Antonio S.; Pagdanganan, Ines Margarita B.; Ducanes, Geoffrey M.Are people happier when they are free to pursue what they want? And when they do pursue what they want, are they necessarily better at it? This paper aims to look into freedom, motivation, interest, and happiness as key components of academic performance. In a survey conducted among Liberal Arts, Business and Economics, and Engineering and Sciences students in the University of the Philippines Diliman, the researchers measure the degree of freedom students had on initially deciding on their college course, the amount of motivation and interest they have in pursuing their chosen discipline, and self-assessed levels of happiness. We find that although being personally motivated to do well and study beyond topics taught in class were significant components, happiness was the strongest indicator of excellent academic performance. The researchers also find that interest, motivation and freedom were strong components of self-ssessed happiness.Item Restricted The age-old question on spending: an analytical study on the factors affecting Philippine household spending patterns on health and education, with a focus on senior headship(2015-12) Dalisay, Nicole Anne V.; Ducanes, Geoffrey M.This paper focuses on the effects of senior headship, while taking into account regional variables and other household characteristics on household spending on health and education. Using data from the Annual Poverty Indicators Survey (APIS) of 2013, OLS regression is used to analyze the significance and effects of the hypothesized determinants on household spending on health and education. The Huber-White sandwich estimators were utilized to correct for hetero skedasticity. The results of this study reveal that senior-headed households spend less on both health and education than their non-senior counterparts. For health, senior-headed households spend approximately ₱21,570 less than non-senior headed households. As for education, senior-headed households, on the average, spend roughly ₱454 less than non-senior headed households. The controlled variables include age of the household head, marital status of the household head, employment status of the household head, household size, income, cash received from abroad, gifts received for the particular expenditure category, and sex of the household head.