Browsing by Author "Mariano, Paul A."
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Item Restricted Asymmetries in the Philippine business cycle: a nonparametric evidence(2007-04) Mariano, Paul A.Business cycles have long been hypothesized to be asymmetric: when expansion ends, the economy falls rapidly and suddenly. When recovery begins, growth becomes gradual and longer. This study investigates if the Philippine business cycle exhibits such behavior. It employs the Triples test, a nonparametric procedure, to provide empirical evidence. The results show that macroeconomic fluctuations are characterized by steepness of cycles: downturns are steeper than upturns, and deepness of cycles: troughs are deeper than peaks are tall. These patterns of asymmetry imply that the economic mechanisms of aggregate variables are better represented by nonlinear models than linear models that assume symmetry.