Browsing by Author "Triguero, Rafael G."
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Item Restricted An assessment of the predective power of the stock market and labor market Nexus in the Philippines(2015-06) Pornillos, Paul Ryan H.; Triguero, Rafael G.; Solon, Orville Jose C.; Ducanes, Geoffrey M.This paper examines the predictability of the classical inflation - unemployment trade-off in the Philippines using their interaction with essential stock market and macroeconomic variables. Amidst the improving capital environment in the country as result of enhanced political governance and other factors that reduce the level of risks to financial development, it is worth noting what the implications of these are on other economic indicators as well as the overall economy in general. This study inspects quarterly macroeconomic and stock market data . from 2000 to 2014 and estimated different models to test the interactions between these variables and devise an alternative method for forecasting inflation and unemployment. Results show that the ARMAX estimation outperforms naive models in forecasting inflation while VAR seems to be the most effective method in forecasting unemployment ·in an eight- quarter horizon.