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Author: Ablaza, Christine Marie J. ×

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    Patterns and determinants of poverty transitions in the Philippines: a panel data analysis
    (2013-11) Ablaza, Christine Marie J.; Ducanes, Geoffrey M.
    This paper examines the factors underlying household poverty transitions in the Philippines. Using a matched panel dataset of the Annual Poverty Indicators Survey and the Labor Force Survey, the study finds that the determinants of poverty entry and exit are not symmetric. Becoming poor is associated with the age of the household head, overall household size, the sector of employment, and access to remittances. Conversely, becoming non-poor is correlated with the square of the household head's age, household size, level of human capital and class of worker. These findings suggest that poverty may be better tackled from a dynamic perspective. Moreover, the absence of symmetry in the correlates highlights the need for a more careful and deliberate targeting of government programs.
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    An inquiry into remittances, real exchange rate behavior, and sectoral growth in the Philippines: the Dutch disease diagnosis
    (2008-03) Ablaza, Christine Marie J.; Bulatao, Pia Rosal D.P.; Quimbo, Stella
    The windfall of resources coming into the Philippines has caused speculations that the country has contracted the symptoms of the so-called Dutch disease, a condition where a resource boom harms the economy by making its industries less competitive. This paper attempts to diagnose whether the Philippines is suffering from the said phenomenon. Using the three-stage least squares estimation method, we assess the behavior of the real exchange rate in relation to increases in capital flows and determine its subsequent effects on the different sectors of the economy. The econometric results of the paper confirm the theories that inflows such as remittances and ODA cause real appreciation. Results also confirm the relationship between the exchange rate and the growth in the non-tradable sector. However, we found that with a real appreciation, the tradable sector experienced growth instead of a decline. We thus end with the conclusion that the Philippines is not suffering from the Dutch disease, although several symptoms are already present. Nonetheless, measures should be taken by the government to prevent the Dutch disease from fully taking effect.