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Author: Baga, Aprian Marvin × Subject: Regional development ×

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    Regional disparities in the Philippines: a business cycle analysis
    (2008-04) Manaois, Lovely D.; Baga, Aprian Marvin
    The study investigates the correlation of the business cycle movement of the Philippines with its regions and the correlation of one particular region with all the regions using the GDP and the Regional GDP from 1975-2004 at 1985 constant prices as the main input. A band pass filter called the Baxter-King Filter which is designed to isolate fluctuations of a set of data or cyclical component of an economic time series which is persisting between the periods of two to eight years was used to extract the business cycle of the Philippines and its regions. But due to the fact that the business cycle of the Philippines is more volatile and has shorter length, the business cycles were extracted using 2-5 as the frequency band. After the inputs have passed the filter, their correlations and the significance of their correlations were obtained using the Pearson Correlation Test. From the correlation test, it was revealed that the Philippines has a positive relationship with the National Capital Region (NCR), Central Luzon (Region 3), Southern Tagalog (Region 4 ), Bicol Region (Region 5), Western Vizayas (Region 6), Central Vizayas (Region 7) and Region12CAR (which is a combination of Regions 1, 2 and the Cordillera Autonomous Region) making NCR the region with the highest correlation coefficient of .911 indicating that the Philippines and NCR has a very strong correlation that their cycles move together (i.e. when one experience expansion (recession), the other also experience expansion (recession)) which is very true since NCR is the biggest contributor in the countries economy being the most industrialized and center for all big economic transactions and center for economic activities. It is further revealed that most of the regions have positive relationship with the other regions but at different level of strengths depending on the correlation coefficients.