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Item Unknown Vulnerability to poverty: who are the poor of the future?(2011-04) Chua, Kenn Garry L.; Go, Laurence Anthony L.; Tecson, Gwendolyn R.Existing poverty reduction policies are criticized for targeting the poor of today, instead of those who might be poor tomorrow. Studies on vulnerability gained popularity as a result of the significant role of risk and its interplay with poverty. Emphasizing the dynamic nature of poverty, the paper provides a new index for vulnerability and discusses important determinants of this vulnerability. As the first Philippine research to discuss vulnerability and propose an original measure, the study also pioneers the use of a longitudinal data through the merged APIS of 2004, 2007 and 2008. While current measures of vulnerability exist in the literature, the researchers modified the methodology used for poverty status [Reyes 2002a] and applied it to their study of vulnerability. A multinomial logistic regression was employed to yield the determinants affecting household vulnerability. Echoing studies on poverty, variables such as household head characteristics, urbanity, housing quality, asset ownership and income from abroad were identified as the model's regress. Furthermore, factors external to the household were regressed including macroeconomic indicators and weather variables. Results replicate those of existing studies - that vulnerability is greatest for households whose heads are uneducated, those located in rural settings with poor housing quality. In addition, vulnerable households are characterized by low employment ratios, limited income sources (whether domestic or abroad) and inadequate asset ownership. Ultimately, macro- level variables play a significant role in our analysis, with inflation, rainfall and typhoons greatly influencing a household's vulnerability level.