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Item Restricted In search of COVID-19: analysis of the impact of negative investor sentiment on ASEAN-6 stock markets using Google trends data(2023-05-12) Alcedo, Maxine C; Go, Hannah Nicole B.; Mendoza, Adrian R.This study analyzes the effects of negative retail investor sentiment regarding COVID- 19 on the stock market indices of six countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), namely Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. We argue that investors demand more information in times of uncertainty (e.g., pandemics) to lessen their exposure to risk, which in turn influences their behavior in the stock market. Using weekly data from January 2020 to July 2022 to capture the beginning, peak, and decline of the pandemic, we analyze the abnormal increase in Google search volume relating to COVID-19 to measure uncertainty and panic in investor behavior. In particular, we used the “Coronavirus disease 2019” topic in Google Trends as a proxy for negative investor sentiment relating to the pandemic. Using pooled ordinary least squares, we found that negative investor sentiment has a significant adverse effect on ASEAN stock market returns. Our fixed effects regression showed that negative investor sentiment has a significant positive effect on ASEAN stock market volatility. Our findings also suggest that negative investor sentiment has a greater effect on ASEAN stock markets than changes in new COVID-19 cases. These results are robust after controlling for relevant factors such as government stringency measures, financial market size, oil prices, real exchange rates, and global interest rates. The growth of new COVID-19 cases has a significant negative effect on stock market returns. Faster growth in new vaccinations positively impacts returns as well.Item Restricted ICT and the economy in the ASEAN region(2023-01) Echiverri, Earle Kendric G.; Sotin, Solcil Christianne T.; Pernia, Ernesto M.Our paper examines the role of ICT in the economic development of the ASEAN region. Using panel data on six ASEAN countries from 2000 to 2019, we analyze the impact of two ICT features, namely, mobile cellular and fixed broadband subscriptions, by applying ordinary least squares (OLS) fixed effects, random effects, and generalized least squares (GLS) regressions. Our results show that both ICT features have positive and significant effects on economic development as indicated by GDP growth.Item Restricted A cross-country study of green bond issuance on the environment and economy in ASEAN(2024-01) Banal, Denise A.; Bisnar, Judica O.; Balaoing-Pelkmans, Edylinda Annette O.Global awareness of environmental issues and climate change has been growing for years. There has also been pressure and a need to address these issues to mitigate their effects. With that, industries have been contributing to helping the environment through sustainable ways and policies. One example is how the finance industry helps combat these issues, such as countries that have started looking into green finance. Green bonds are a type of debt security that has the same structure as conventional bonds as the government or corporations issue them to fund environment- or climaterelated projects. This research addresses the significance and relationship of green bonds on both economic growth and the environment. It focuses on six ASEAN countries, particularly, the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam, and Thailand. A panel analysis of 48 countries in Asia focusing on the six ASEAN countries from 2016 to 2022 reveals that Asia has better performance towards the environment because increases in green bond issuance reduce CO2 and GHG emissions and contribute to Climate Action (SDG 13). ASEAN green bonds are positively correlated with the GDP growth rate. With contribution towards economic growth, issued green bonds in ASEAN perform better than in Asia.Item Restricted An inquiry on the impact of intellectual property rights on foreign direct investments in ASEAN(2022-01) Lingat, Isabella Ruth C.; Ramin, Ansherina Mei T.This study aims to analyze the impact of Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) protection quality on inbound Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) in a panel of 10 ASEAN countries over the period 2000-2020. Using a fixed effects regression model to account for the country-specific effects that may be present due to the existence of country groups, this study found that there is a positive but insignificant effect of IPR quality on the level of FDI inflow. Instead of IPR strength, inflation and GDP were found to have a significant influence on inbound FDI.Item Restricted Financial development, economic growth, international trade, and environmental degradation: the ASEAN+ case(2019-05) Quejada, Angel Derrickvhel ; Jandoc, Karl Robert L.Item Restricted Politics and contagion: the impacts of political risk assessments on ASEAN credit default swap spread co-movements(2017) De Pano, Fatima ; Perez, Brian ; Mendoza, Maria Nimfa F.CDS markets in the ASEAN region have been growing throughout the years. In terms of trading volumes, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippine, Thai and Vietnamese CDS markets belong to the top 35 markets worldwide. With the nature of being emerging markets, higher credit risk is then associated with the ASEAN region. After the global financial crisis, research has been drawn to studying global sovereign credit risk, but few have focused on the ASEAN region. This paper seeks to examine sovereign credit co-movements of the ASEAN region and its determinants. We further contribute to the literature by examining the impacts of political risks on credit risk correlations. Time-varying correlations are estimated from a multivariate GARCH DCC model, as developed by Engle (2002), for sovereign CDS premium spreads of 9 select Asian countries, from 2008-2017. Statistically-significant periods of contagion are identified to separate contagious and business-as-usual periods. Lastly, fixed-effects and random-effects panel regressions are used to estimate gravity-type models and to analyze the determinants behind credit risk co-movements across contagious and business-as-usual periods. The results of this paper show that political risk plays a significant role in moving time-varying correlations within the region for business-as-usual periods. Evidence is also found of ‘decoupling’ events, wherein credit risk correlations fall sharply, as opposed to contagion events wherein credit risk correlations spike.Item Restricted Military expenditure, foreign direct investments and economic growth: a cross-country analysis of thea ASEAN region(2019-05) Cuevas, Isabel Lorraine A. ; Ramos, Dindo L. Jr.; Capuno, Joseph J.Using a panel data of the ASEAN countries for the period 2008 to 2017, we analyzed the effect of military expenditure on economic growth. Two possible channels by which military expenditure affects growth are considered. First, a direct causal pathway shows that the impact of military spending on growth is stimulated by the government. Second, an indirect effect presents FDI as a causal pathway of military expenditure to growth. Four models were used to look into the relationships between the three variables. Results show that military expenditure does not have a direct effect on growth. However, it does have an indirect effect. As military spending increases, FDI inflow decreases. Moreover, FDI spurs growth. This shows that military expenditure has a negative effect on economic growth when FDI acts as a causal pathway.Item Restricted An assessment of the capital account liberalization in the Philippines for the ASEAN financial integration(2015-05) Reyes, Mark Emmanuel P.; Riñon, Lea Isabella T.; Magno, Cielo D.The recent collaboration of the Philippines with the other Southeast Asian nations and the hope to improve the current policies reg~rding the financial market of the country motivated the researchers to conduct the study. This research focused on the Capital Asset Liberalization in the Philippines in line for the ASEAN Financial Integration. It assessed the fmancial market's components and its contribution to the growth of the national economy for 2005 to 2014, through a Vector Error Correction (VEC) model. Capital Account (CA), Financial Account (FA), and Total Approved Foreign Investments (TAFI) served as financial market components while the ratio of Money Supply (M3) to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) served as a proxy measuring Financial Deepening. Appropriate policy shocks were also included in the model: six waves of Central Bank of the Philippines' CAL initiatives and a law allowing infusion of foreign equity to rural banks. It also utilized Impulse Response Functions and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition to reflect the response of and the variance contributed by each variable to each of the other variables. The findings in this study showed that only the sixth wave significantly contributed to Financial Deepening, the fourth and sixth wave significantly contributed to the CA, and the seventh wave significantly contributed to the FA. Therefore, the researchers recommend that the increase in investments be channelled to long term productive uses like for infrastructure, agricultural technology, education and other priority sectors stipulated in the roadmaps for Vision 2020.Item Restricted Looking through the glass ceiling: the relative worth of women in organization in ASEAN(2015-12) Viray, Earl Ricser P.; Espanta, Jereen Andrea S.P.; Pernia, Ernesto M.Despite feminist efforts, women remain underestimated and taken for granted in the economy. The imbalance of gender in high management bodies is not good for the economy. In this study, we hypothesize that there is no obvious congruence between the gender gap index and the glass ceiling index. We construct glass ceiling indices for seven Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries -- the Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei Darussalam, and Vietnam. We use nine indicators for the construction of our glass ceiling index, namely, paid maternity leave, women in parliament, share of senior managers who are women, share of women on company boards, wage gap, labor force participation of women, higher education gap, child care costs, and share of women GMAT candidates. We do a comparative analysis of the gender gap and glass ceiling rankings of the countries to prove our hypothesis. We find that the gender gap is a more general gauge and is not an accurate measure of which country has the best working environment for women. Moreover, we forecast GDP of the ASEAN countries using ARIMA modeling and estimate foregone GDP due to the persistence of the glass ceiling. We find that there may be a substantial loss to the economy due to the glass ceiling, and that there is a compelling argument for both government and business leaders to take action to urgently address the glass ceiling issue.Item Restricted Tourism and economic growth: the case of the five ASEAN countries(2013-10) Chua, Angelyne M.; Rivera, Kyla Viktoria V.; Pernia, Ernesto M.For many national governments, the tourism industry is seen as an important contributor to economic development. The industry is expected to provide job opportunities, reduce poverty, earn foreign exchange, and stimulate economic growth and progress in general. Although tourism is touted to play such a role, some economists remain skeptical about the significance of its impact on economic growth and development. Accordingly, studies ofthe relationship between tourism and economic growth have not been lacking; economists still continue to disagree on the real benefits of tourism to the economy. Hoping to contribute to this ongoing discussion, our paper aims to find out whether or not tourism exerts a positive impact on economic growth by looking into the experiences of five ASEAN developing countries, namely, Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam. We want to address the question: are governments correct in investing so much in an industry whose contribution to growth still seems open to inquiry? We employ fixed effect panel data estimation to answer this question. The results of our analysis provide supporting evidence that tourism has a positive and significant impact on economic growth using data on the five ASEAN countries covered in this study.
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