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Item Restricted The Philippine business cycle and yield curve: a MArkov regime switching and OLS approach(2012-03) Domingo, Carlo G.; Mendoza, Maria Nimfa F.There is a dearth of studies on the business cycle of the Philippines, much less are papers on the Philippine yield curve and how it performs as an indicator of inflections in the business cycle. This study aims to identify turning points and transition probabilities of the business cycle using the Markov Regime Switching Model with four autoregressive lags AR(4), determine the number of relevant regimes, and then look into the predictive ability of an OLS model of the yield curve on real GDP growth using all available data on year-on-year quarterly real GDP growth and Treasury Bill Yields. Results indicate that a Markov Regime Switching Model with three regimes fit the data with good estimates of smoothed probabilities and that the difference of the yield of 364-day and 91-day T-Bills lagged by four quarters suffice as independent variables in the OLS model.Item Restricted An analysis of the sources of business fluctuations in Japan and the United States of America as compared to the Philippines(2002-04) Ferrera, Bernadette S.; Guiala, Maritess; Reside, Renato Jr.Background and Purpose. With the current state of the world economy and the many events that occurred which affected business transactions, a study on the sources of business fluctuations would really be beneficial to a country. Current events are beyond the control of business people. Thus, they cannot do anything about. They could only adjust their strategies in order to make things work. There are factors, though, that they can control and these are the economic variables that are endogenous to the business. By analyzing the sources of business distortions, leaders can avoid policies that can further I tinder growth for the company or the country. The paper aims to show which of the temporary and permanent shocks has a major impact on output and prices in Japan and the US. It also wants to know which of the two countries has a steeper aggregate supply curve. Lastly, the study would compare its results to prior studies and to the results obtained in a similar study done by Prof. Reside (2002) about the Philippines. Methodology. Data gathered for the two countries, Japan and USA, were obtained from the International Financial Statistics book. Unlike in previous studies where they used yearly data of GDP and unemployment, this study utilizes quarterly data and the consumer price index (CPI) instead of unemployment. CPI is used instead because this information is readily available among countries whereas only a few countries record their unemployment statistics. Traditional interpretation of macroeconomic fluctuations employs the aggregate supply- aggregate demand (AS-AD) model as the main tool. Along with this a bivariate VAR (vector autoregression) analysis setup similar to that of Bayoumi and Eichengreen is utilized to examine the impulse-response functions and variance decompositions of Japan and the USA. Results were then compared to traditional theories, interpretations and studies to check if they comply with them. Results. Outcome of the study showed that in the long-run output is basically driven by AS shocks and prices by AD shocks. Japan's impulse-response does not comply with the simple textbook model but in other aspects such as variance decompositions it exhibits a BQ model. USA, on the other hand, completely depicts the BQ model. It was also proven that an industrialized country such as the US could behave in the same manner as the Philippines. Conclusion. The: empirical study concludes from the analysis of various factors that both countries have steep AS curves but Japan has a steeper AS curve than the US and that the Philippines' sources of business fluctuations is almost the same as that of the US.Item Restricted Determinants of capacity utilization in the manufacturing sector(2004-03) Andres, Genevie Anne M.; Corpuz, Ameriza D.; Diokno, BenjaminPast studies indicate that the manufacturing sector, through time, had been underutilizing its capacity. Being a developing country, how is it possible that the country can afford not to use up all its available resources? It is a common belief that as one does its best to work at its full capacity, highest growth for the said industry will occur which eventually will lead to the country's economic growth. The paper aimed to find the determinants of capacity utilization in the manufacturing sector for possible answers as to why the said sector is not working at full capacity. Growth rates in manufacturing and its export-orientation were the main focus of the paper. With analysis done through panel regression, cross-sectional regression among the industries, the study concludes that growth rates affect capacity utilization positively, while export-orientation is not a significant factor for capacity utilization.Item Restricted Asymmetries in the Philippine business cycle: a nonparametric evidence(2007-04) Mariano, Paul A.Business cycles have long been hypothesized to be asymmetric: when expansion ends, the economy falls rapidly and suddenly. When recovery begins, growth becomes gradual and longer. This study investigates if the Philippine business cycle exhibits such behavior. It employs the Triples test, a nonparametric procedure, to provide empirical evidence. The results show that macroeconomic fluctuations are characterized by steepness of cycles: downturns are steeper than upturns, and deepness of cycles: troughs are deeper than peaks are tall. These patterns of asymmetry imply that the economic mechanisms of aggregate variables are better represented by nonlinear models than linear models that assume symmetry.