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Subject: Economic crisis ×

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Now showing 1 - 8 of 8
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    The reasons behind the present debt crisis
    (1984-01) Asuncion, Carina; Alonzo, Ruperto
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    Debt-servicing capacity of the Philippines using logit analysis, 1973-1984
    (1987-03) Balagot, Ronald Antonio G.; Romulo, Rosa Guadalupe T.; Castro, Amado
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    A study of "dollar-salting" in the Philippines (1956-1981)
    (1984-03) Gonzales, Florentino T. III; Valencia, Dennis V.; Alonzo, Ruperto
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    The economics of EDSA dos
    (2002-03) Cruz, Prince Christian R.; Alonzo, Ruperto
    The Economics of EDSA Dos develops a public choice economics approach to the widely celebrated socio-political event, the January 16-20, 2001 EDSA Dos Revolution. The study used the January 27, 2001 SWS Survey on People Power 2 and Change in the Presidency wherein 300 individuals were surveyed. Using binary logit analysis, the study held participation in EDSA Dos as the dependent variable with age, sex, political party affiliation, working status, educational attainment and socio-economic class as explanatory variables. The over-all model is significant at 1% confidence interval, while the variables for age, socio-income class, and education are the significant ones. Age has a negative coefficient, indicating the participation of the youth. The probability of participating in EDSA Dos is higher when one finished college or had post-graduate studies than when one achieved lesser than elementary education. A higher probability also exists for those belonging to the AB and C socio-economic level than those belonging in Class E. Participants and sympathizers of EDSA Dos are classified into five and their motives are as follows: a) push for their own narrow principles for zealots, b) fear of guilt and desire for changes for advocates, c) need for more power, income, and prestige for climbers, c) love of country for statesmen, and e) need to go along with the flow for conservers.
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    Financial liberalization: a precursor to a currency crisis?
    (2001-01) Hernandez, Jazmin E.; Quintos, Angelica Irene G.
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    Effects of the economic crisis on the progressive car manufacturing program participants
    (1985-03) Gonzales, Cristina Maria Nicolas; Belen, Bernardo Santos
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    The impact of the fiscal crisis on poverty in the Philippines
    (2005-04) Aquinde, Lora Mae B.; Punzalan, Renato R.
    The paper aims to determine whether a fiscal crisis, particularly one which is caused by external indebtedness, has significant effects on the welfare of the poor. The welfare of the poor has been measured by consumption expenditure and human development indicators such as primary enrolment and mortality rates. We use ordinary least squares estimations to determine the sensitivity of the aforementioned welfare measures to the different manifestations of a fiscal crisis. We find that a fiscal crisis worsens poverty conditions in the Philippines mainly through the crowding out of social sector spending. A fiscal crisis also affects the welfare of the poor through changes in their consumption patterns and spending power. Along with its impact through income and expenditure, external indebtedness also affects infant mortality and primary school participation although these effects appear relatively subtle. We conclude that high debt service results not only in lower real incomes but also in reductions in human capital investments of the poor. Our paper shows the heavy reliance of the poor on publicly-provided social services and, as a policy implication, that the national government budget must be allocated equitably, with a focus on those types of government spending that are pro-poor.
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    Looking ahead: assessing the vulnerabilities of the Philippine economy through an early warning system
    (2004-10) Bulao, Rolan Jon G.; Lucio, Eduardo B.
    With the numerous crises hitting emerging market economies, including the Philippines, there is an increasing need for developing an early warning system (EWS). The study constructed an EWS applying the multinomial logit model to predict an upcoming crisis for the next 12 months. Using the entire sample period January 1980-December 2001, five periods of crisis were identified, using the exchange market pressure (EMP) formula. The periods where the crises started were November 1983, February 1986, September 1990, August 1997, and November 2000. After assessing the vulnerability of the Philippine economy using the different leading indicators from 1980-2001, we find that among the most important variables that can help determine an upcoming crisis are the overvaluation of the real effective exchange rate, current account deficit, and the import and export growth as well as the trade balance. The level of gross international reserves, inflation rates, the spread between RP and US three month t-bill rate, money supply, and the level of domestic credit to the private sector are also reliable signals of an upcoming crisis.