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Subject: Peso appreciation ×

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    Peso appreciation: what causes it? a study on Philippine exchange rate determination
    (2008-03) Taccad, Toni Lee Alexis J.; Lukban, Marie Eunice S.; Alburo, Florian
    The years 2006 and 2007 experienced peso appreciation shifting the long running depreciation trend in the Philippines. This thesis looks into factors that could have determined this phenomenon through applying the theories of exchange rate determination. It used the Ordinary Least Squares Method to verify if the factors identified by the BSP: remittances, export earnings and foreign investments, truly reflect this appreciation specifically that of REER. The study used the monthly frequencies of these variables. Three extended models are regressed to include a global exchange market factor: dollar weakening. This thesis had found out that the current appreciation can be attributed more on the global exchange rate market movements than the foreign inflows in the domestic exchange rate market.
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    Response of import-substituting and export-oriented manufacturing industries to the peso appreciation
    (2008-03) Liwanag, Emilen C.; Fabregas, Irene A.
    Many local and foreign studies have supported the theory that the real appreciation of a country's currency lowers the demand for its exports; hence, the country would experience loss of competitiveness in the global market. Moreover, not only does the real change in a currency's value affect exports, it also influences the production of import-substitutes theoretically the same way it does on exports. This thesis focuses on the effect of the real appreciation of the Philippine Peso, as measured by the real effective exchange rate, to both the export-oriented and import- substituting manufacturing industries within the period 1980-2003 and tries to weigh the relative disadvantages bought about by the real peso appreciation. To determine the significance of the real peso appreciation on exports and import-substitutes, this thesis uses an Ordinary Least Squares method of estimation. At a %5 level of significance, the real effective exchange rate is significant for both manufacturing sectors. In contrast, however with the theory, import-substitutes do gain an advantage over the real peso appreciation because of the cheaper import raw materials in many manufacturing industries.