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Item Restricted On shadow pricing and trade liberalization: the role of the re-estimation of the shadow exchange rate for effective project evaluation and public investment in the Philippines(2003-03) Alvarado, Audrey R.; Pascual, Criselda Patricia B.; Alburo, FlorianThe Shadow Exchange Rate (SER) is a tool used in project evaluation to take into consideration the real economic costs and benefits of a project to society. This reflects the real cost of foreign exchange after adjusting for distortions caused by tariffs and subsidies. The current SER estimate of 20% being used in project evaluation still dates back to the early 1990's. This estimate fails to account for recent changes in the economy specifically changes in the tariff structures of the Philippines. It also fails to consider empirical estimates for import demand and export supply elasticities used in the SER equation. This study re-estimates the SER to correct for these changes. This study is patterned after the National Economic and Development Authority's (NEDA) SER framework. Multiple regression analysis on Schwalbenberg's model for Philippine import demand and studies made by Romeo Bautista for an estimate of the Philippine export supply function are conducted to obtain import demand and export supply elasticities. Based from the results, the SER is stabilizing around 14% to 15% for the forecasted periods of 2002 to 2005 using the obtained import demand and export supply elasticies of -1.197359 and 0.5739347 respectively. Hence, the appropriate SER value that the government should use in project evaluation is 15%. Continuing to use the overvalued SER estimate of 20% tends to favor projects producing non-tradable outputs using tradable inputs over projects producing tradable outputs using non-tradable inputs. This results in a misallocation of resources. Recent SER estimates obtained in this study are also found to possess higher values as compared to those of the post-war period. This shows that despite the decline of the SER since the implementation of the first Tariff Reform Program (TRP) changes in the economy specifically the shift from external trade tariffs to internal indirect taxes appears to be more distortionary. Therefore, although the government should to continue its efforts in reducing protection polices to improve the competitiveness of the Philippines in the global trade market, a more efficient collection system for internal indirect taxes is needed rather than further increases in Value-Added tax to offset revenue losses from the decrease in tariff revenues. Furthermore, the government should also exploit the full potential of direct taxation through income taxes. Direct taxes if properly collected have the advantage of being able to reach high concentrations of income and wealth as opposed to indirect taxes.Item Restricted The impact of public investments in farm-to-market roads and irrigation on the regional gross value added in agriculture(2004-03) Abapo, Kara Biance M.; Roman, Christian H.; Diokno, BenjaminThe role of irrigation systems and complementing transportation networks are necessary infrastructures in furthering the development of the agricultural sector, allowing its productivity to increase with the demand for food and connecting it to the production and consumption markets. This paper presents results from econometric analysis of a panel data including the 13 regions in the country over five years to examine the impacts of public investments in agricultural infrastructure on agricultural output. More specifically, infrastructure is represented by irrigation and farm-to-market roads, and agricultural output is measured by regional gross value added in agriculture. Agricultural infrastructures, both irrigation and farm- to-market roads, are expected to have a significant and positive relationship with the regional gross value added in agriculture; the elasticities of the regional gross value added in agriculture, irrigation, and farm- to-market roads would demonstrate this. Furthermore, this study explores the underlying relationships between factor inputs. The analysis provided in this paper suggests that explanatory variables have an indirect, not a direct, impact on the level of output. There are, however, inconclusive relationships that arise from the study due to ambiguity in trend patterns between the gross value added in agriculture and the explanatory variables, irregularities in the data, inconsistency in measurement, and time-sensitivity of variables.Item Restricted Public investments and child health outcomes(2006-10) Acorda, Elarny S.; Arao, Rosa Mia L.; Quimbo, Stella L.This paper assesses the effects of donor-assisted projects in impoverished communities through an assessment of the ARMM Social Fund Project. The program was first assessed on its design features and then by measuring their impact on several welfare indicators. The use of simple regression techniques determined the effect of intervention variables on their respective welfare indicators. Results of the regression analysis offers mixed results on the effects of the intervention, which is still open for further discussion. The paper suggests that more robust results would emerge if certain aspects of the project's design were modified. This paper assesses the effects of donor-assisted projects in impoverished communities through an assessment of the ARMM Social Fund Project. The program was first assessed on its design features and then by measuring their impact on several welfare indicators. The use of simple regression techniques determined the effect of intervention variables on their respective welfare indicators. Results of the regression analysis offers mixed results on the effects of the intervention, which is still open for further discussion. The paper suggests that more robust results would emerge if certain aspects of the project's design were modified. Using the data from the Quality Improvement Demonstration Study (QIDS), this study examines the determinants of child health in the provinces of Region 6 (Iloilo, Capiz, Negros Occidental), Region 7 (Cebu, Bohol, Negros Oriental), Region 8 (Leyte, Eastern Samar) and the islands of Biliran, Siquijor, and Camiguin. Specifically, we seek to provide an indirect assessment of the impact of public health commodities which are typically provided for by the government such as health facilities, water, sanitation, prenatal care, including breastfeeding and immunization programs. We use two measures of child health outcomes - anthropometric measures and self-reported health assessments by the mother. For the anthropometries, we use standardized z-scores for height-for-age (stunting), weight-for-height (wasting), and weight-for age (underweight) of children based on a reference population. Logistic regression was used for the analysis of anthropometric measures while Ordered Probit was used for the self-reported health assessments by the mother. The regression results for the anthropometric measures indicate that child and household characteristics such as maternal education and monthly income strongly affect child health, although these results vary across anthropometric parameters. Access to health facilities also positively affect child health indicated by doctor in-charge of delivery of baby and birth weight, a proxy variable for access to prenatal care. Moreover, breastfeeding and immunization also seem to be significantly associated with child health outcomes. Similarly, child health as measured by mother-reported health status is also correlated with child and household characteristics such as age and household size, respectively. Health infrastructure, particularly the presence of piped water system and sanitary toilet, are shown to be significant correlates of child health. Public health commodities which are typically provided for by the government, such as access to health facilities, health infrastructure, immunization and breastfeeding are shown to improve child health outcomes. The analysis of the determinants of child heath points to the importance not only of the common correlates of child health particularly maternal education and family resources but also to the significance of community variables and access to public health commodities. Our study is helpful to policy makers, stakeholders, advocates and researchers who wish to obtain an understanding of the determinants of child health and the impacts of public health commodities on child health. It also makes a case in support of child health investments, as a way of securing positive health outcomes for children's well-being and by extension, improving our human capital and influencing the direction and quality of development in the country.Item Restricted Analyzing the effects of investments in public infrastructure on regional poverty reduction(2006-04-10) Aruta, Joseph Ricardo; De Guzman, Rodette Bon; Arcenas, AgustinPoverty remains to be one of the most pressing issues of the Philippine society. The government has resorted to different means in order to combat this problem, such as providing sources of income, shelter and healthcare. But one of the less visible ways by which the government attempts to reduce poverty is through its investments in public infrastructures, specifically in roads, electricity, education, irrigation and the Comprehensive Agrarian Reform Program. These infrastructures have both its direct effects on poverty alleviation, and indirect effects because it goes through certain channels, namely wages, agricultural employment and non-agricultural, which then have impacts on poverty. The aim of this study is to measure just how significant the investments of the government in these infrastructures are on regional poverty reduction. Data from 1990 to 2005 on the amount of government expenditure on these infrastructures were gathered and regressed against poverty incidence and the channels. Regression results show that government spending on roads has the largest direct effect on poverty reduction. Both education and electricity have the largest indirect impact on improving the welfare of the poor through its effects on the three channels mentioned above. These results suggest that the government should be wiser in deciding where to allocate resources if its main objective is to lift people out of poverty. It should be more flexible in imposing policies and ensure that the benefits are felt by the people.Item Restricted Sorting out the impact of public investments on regional growth in the Philippines(2004-03) Mallari, Ivy Kristine Paras; Remo, Cecilia SantosThe main objective of this paper is to determine which public investments the government should prioritize in providing each region to attain economic growth. A modified production function based on several growth models is used as the basis for formulating an empirical model. The empirical findings, using data of Philippine regions for the years 1992-2001, lead to the conclusion that public investments in the form of infrastructure positively affect income or output growth. Moreover, the results suggest that the Philippine government should prioritize investing on education, transportation and communication facilities, specifically, schools, roads and bridges as well as telephone lines, in order to promote balanced regional growth. The study also finds that contrary to earlier results, investment in social infrastructure (education, in particular) positively affects growth. However, at least for the time frame considered, health facilities in the Philippines showed positive but insignificant effects on regional income growth.Item Restricted Public investment and its relation to private investment: a study on the industry level(1997-10) Li, Aprielle Kathleene A.; Ragasa, Catherine R.; Fabella, Raul V.