2 results
Search Results
Now showing 1 - 2 of 2
Item Restricted Can natural disasters be good for the economy?(2017) Cañaveral, Patricia lynn P.; Rix, Mayumi Katrina B. ; Pajaron, Marjorie C.This paper explores the possibility that natural disasters bring a positive impact on regional economic growth in the Philippines under certain conditions, as described by Schumpeter’s theory of creative destruction or the paradoxical idea that destruction of old capital results in the creation of new ones, which leads to economic growth. Using regional data on the occurrence, severity, and amount of damages brought about by tropical cyclones from 2002 to 2015, we examine how such exogenous shocks affect changes in regional aggregate output, expenditures, and gross value added of the three major sectors of the economy. Using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Random Effects (RE) and Fixed Effects (FE), Two-Step Heckman Selection, and Propensity Score Matching (PSM), our results reveal a positive relationship between natural disasters, conditional on damages, which are considered as the main driver of creative destruction, and regional economic growth in the Philippines. OLS, FE, and RE panel regressions indicate that tropical cyclones that result in damages are positively correlated with regional economic growth. The Two-Step Heckman Selection models show that regional geography variables, such as location and land area, must be taken into account to correct for selection bias in regions that experience damages while the PSM results indicate that regions that experience at least three damaging tropical cyclones in a year register greater regional economic growth relative to those that do not. The key finding of this thesis, which suggests that the more damaging a typhoon is the higher the regional economic growth in the short run, does not downplay the huge negative impact of natural disasters on properties, income, and human capital. Our thesis merely provides another perspective about the impact of natural disasters albeit controversial.Item Restricted The price effects of typhoon exposure on the Philippine rice markets: a stacked event study approach(2026-01-06) Espiritu, Ariana Ysabel S.; Pangilinan, Nasya Lauren S.C.; Sabarillo, Anthony G.With the Philippines remaining as one of the world’s most disaster-prone countries, understanding the inflationary impact of typhoons on rice is critical for food security. This thesis utilizes a Stacked Event Study approach to evaluate whether there is a shift in provincial-level retail rice price dynamics following the occurrence of tropical cyclones. With the usage of PSA’s Retail Price Survey data on regular-milled (RMR) and well-milled rice (WMR) prices from 2012 to 2020, together with Galloway et al.’s (2025) tropical cyclone data, findings show that on the month of its landfall, the occurrence of a Class 6 typhoon or Super Typhoon causes a 2.3% increase in RMR prices, while for WMR, a 3.2% increase. These price effects hold at a sustained average of a 3.4% and 4.6% increase across the next six (6) months for RMR and WMR prices, respectively. For both RMR and WMR, Class 0 storms or tropical depressions were found to have decreased rice prices following the event; however, we take caution in concluding causality due to inconsistencies with harvesting cycles and the potential effect of the productive rainfall. Tropical cyclones of Classes 1 to 5, on the other hand, did not produce statistically significant results. These results suggest policy implications for more targeted government interventions to reduce shocks to the Philippine rice markets following typhoons.