Browsing by Author "Cuerdo, Allen Bryan M."
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Results Per Page
Sort Options
Item Unknown Stochastic projections of Philippine rice self-sufficiency amid climate variability(2014-04) Cuerdo, Allen Bryan M.; Maines, Redbert Chris T.; Clarete, Ramon L.Over the years, the nation's elusive goal of rice self-sufficiency has apparently been blown off-course by variability in climate. In this study, a combination of deterministic and stochastic projections was employed to determine the effects of climate variability on rice production and the prospects of local rice security in the next decade. Potential future amounts of rainfall (main weather determinant of palay yield) were randomly generated on a yearly basis to determine its possible implications on the crop's supply. Data from 1990 to 2013 mostly coming from the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS) and the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) were utilized to perform econometric analysis using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression. The stochastic projections suggest that deterministic estimation overestimates our capability in achieving rice self-sufficiency by an average of 3.33% of the entire pa/ay production due to the unaccounted aspect of climate variability. Thus, in order to attain rice security through domestic supply, this added output gap must be considered, fostering a climate change-resilient rice industry.