Stochastic projections of Philippine rice self-sufficiency amid climate variability
Date
2014-04
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Abstract
Over the years, the nation's elusive goal of rice self-sufficiency has apparently
been blown off-course by variability in climate. In this study, a combination of
deterministic and stochastic projections was employed to determine the effects of
climate variability on rice production and the prospects of local rice security in the
next decade. Potential future amounts of rainfall (main weather determinant of
palay yield) were randomly generated on a yearly basis to determine its possible
implications on the crop's supply. Data from 1990 to 2013 mostly coming from
the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS) and the Philippine Atmospheric,
Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) were utilized
to perform econometric analysis using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression.
The stochastic projections suggest that deterministic estimation overestimates
our capability in achieving rice self-sufficiency by an average of 3.33% of the
entire pa/ay production due to the unaccounted aspect of climate variability.
Thus, in order to attain rice security through domestic supply, this added output
gap must be considered, fostering a climate change-resilient rice industry.
Description
Keywords
Rice, Climate, Self-sufficiency