MA Economics
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Item Restricted A comparative study of inflation in Indonesia and the Philippines(1977-01) Abbas, Anurlis; Armas, Armando C. Jr.Item Restricted A comparative study of the patterns of public expenditures and revenues of eight regional cities of the Philippines, 1965-1972(1974-01) Abadingo, Atanasio A.; Tan, Edita A.Item Restricted A comparative study of trade patterns of the Philippines and Thailand, 1900-1935(1974-01) Chumvichitra, Pichai; Castro, Amado A.Item Restricted A comparative welfare analysis of the duty drawback and the common bonded warehouse schemes(1993-01) Israel, Rex David C.; de Dios, Emmanuel S.This study analyzes the private and social gains of two duty-free incentive schemes that are currently available to small- and medium-sized firms- the duty drawback and the common bonded warehouse schemes. Private and social criteria within the cost-benefit framework were constructed to evaluate the effects of the two schemes on a representative export firm. At the firm level, the study finds that the common bonded warehouse scheme is superior to the duty drawback in effectively decreasing the cost of production and increasing profit. The study makes a modest attempt at evaluating the two schemes at the social level. With some qualifications, the common bonded warehouse scheme may also be socially superior than the duty drawback.Item Restricted A critical review of valuation studies for coral reefs and damage compensation in the Philippines(2020-05) Abrina, Tara Alessandra S.; Magno, Cielo D.In 2006, the economic valuation of Tubbataha Reef was undertaken for the purpose of calculating appropriate fines for ship grounding damages. That valuation study, Rosales (2006), prescribed that the fines should be based on the Total Economic Value (TEV; also called productivity) and restoration cost estimates. However, this approach has been shown to be incompatible with welfare-based economic foundations in legal and decision-making processes, at least in the way it has been applied in Philippine coral reef policy. The aim of this thesis is to review the ship grounding fines recommended by Rosales (2006) and its reference studies through the lens of microeconomics. Based on the review, I propose a methodology that uses (1) hard coral cover instead of area damaged; (2) willingness to pay (WTP) values for coral restoration instead of TEV; and (3) a tort law liability adjustment in order to integrate standard coral health metrics, social welfare, and remedial law in coral reef policies. This study demonstrates this methodology in the context of recalculating the fines from a ship grounding case on Tubbataha Reef in 2013. Results show that, although mean WTP values lead to a 235% increase in preferred recommended fines from Php 28M to Php 93M (2013 current prices) when the probability of the grounding is assumed at 10%, using the lower bounds of WTP values from a choice modelling reference study shows that the original fines from Rosales (2006) are not statistically different from the revised fines. Nevertheless, these revised fines are an improvement over the original fines as they include welfare economics and legal science considerations.Item Restricted A domestic resource cost analysis of the pulp and paper industry(1979-03) Villanueva, Miguela F.; Bautista, Romeo M.Item Restricted A logit analysis of the labor force participation behaviour of married women in the Philippines(1978-07) Syahruddin; Paqueo, Vicente B.Item Restricted A mathematical theory of social institutions: with an illustration on the pure agricultural contracts(1987-10) Alba, Michael M.; Montes, Manuel F.A theory of social institutions is derived by depicting social problems that recur systematically as supergames. The equilibrating process -- institutionalization -- is modelled as an expanded Estes Learning Model in which the possible institutions are the absorbing states. When applied to agricultural production, the model, because of its feature of informational asymmetry between players, points to the risk attitudes of agents or owners of production factors as determining the type of institution that emerges. When players are risk neutral, all contracts (fixed wage, sharecropping, and fixed rent) have equal chances of becoming institutions. In a risk averse regime, however, sharecropping turns out to be the most probable institutional solution.Item Restricted A money supply model for the Philippines: 1970-1980(1983) Tan, Elizabeth S.; Tan, Edita A.The study seeks to analyze money supply by looking into the conduct of monetary policy, the behavior of the nonbank public and the commercial banks, and the role of the external sector and the government. The theoretical framework used is the reserve-multiplier, which defines money supply as the product of the money multiplier and the monetary base. The multiplier captures first the behavior of the nonbank public as it chooses to hold currency versus demand deposits and demand savings and time deposits versus demand deposits. Second, the behavior of the banks as it hold excess reserves. Third, the reserve requirement policy for traditional deposits of the Central Bank. The domestic source of the monetary base is the main policy instrument and it is specified as a reaction-function to find out how monetary authorities react to the movements of certain variables in the economy. The regression results show that the nonbank public tends to demand less currency, but more savings and time deposits relative to demand deposits as its real income increases. The public will hold more savings and time deposits also as the short-term interest represented by the 91-day Treasury Bills rate increases. The estimated reaction-function shows that the monetary authorities have tended to create base money to sustain growth; however, it has tried to sterilize the foreign source of base money. Qualitative analysis for the period 1970-1980 shows that monetary policy has used the rediscount window to control money supply rather than the reserve requirement tool against traditional deposits more often. Although it has exercised the reserve requirement against margin deposits and deposit substitutes, it appears that it was prompted by policy objectives different from the control of money supply.Item Restricted A multiple goal resource allocation model as applied to the board of investments' industrial structure planning(1970-01) Alvendia, Arthur M.; Power, John H.One of the more common problems encountered by development planners is the determination of an industrial investment program that optimizes the multiple goals expressed by policy-makers and society in general, subject to the resource and technical constraints of the economy. This is the type of problem posed to economic planners by the Board of Investments. There exists a multitude of powerful constrained optimization models that may be applied to such problems. However, the main impediment to the application of these models has been the empirical specification of an objective function that is technically sound and truly reflects the wish of policy-makers. Without an objective function, constrained optimization methods cannot proceed. The source of difficulties is technical as well as psychological. The matter of specifying an objective function reflecting a policy-maker’s judgment on multiple policy goals has always been a difficult job. It involves requiring the policy-maker's judgment on what is the marginal trade-off between goal achievement levels under varying conditions. The information requirement of such an exercise is virtually impossible to obtain and even if available the quality of the judgment must be doubted if the implications of choices made are not known to the policy-maker. A second source of difficulty is psychological in nature. Policy-makers find it easier to think in terms of target levels for each goal, rather than in terms of marginal trade-off between goals when a choice is made between industrial projects. To illustrate--one finds in the Investment Priorities Plan of the Board of Investments (BOI) a statement as to how much foreign exchange, contribution to GNP, how many jobs, etc., will be generated by BOI's Investment Plan (i.e., a program of investment). The amount of foreign exchange, GNP and number of jobs generated by BOI's Investment Plan may be taken by the planner as the policy-maker's aspired goal targets for his multiple goal objectives. One does not find a policy statement as to how much foreign exchange may be substituted for a job opportunity created or for a peso contribution to GNP. Even if marginal rates of substitution between goal achievement levels are implicit in the choice of goal target levels, the policy-maker does not consciously use these information to justify his choice of goal target levels. In short, it is operationally more convenient for the economic planner to make use of aspired goal target levels of policy-makers, as the starting point of a resource allocation model design. These observations were taken into consideration in the design of the multiple-goal resource allocation model developed in this paper to solve the BOI problem of determining the investment program which will optimize the achievement of multiple policy goals. The model developed used expressed goal target levels as the starting point of analysis. BOI expects its Investment Priority Plan to generate a certain level of foreign exchange, GNP, and a certain number of jobs if the investment requirements of the plan are fulfilled. Insofar as these goal achievement levels were acceptable to BOI policy-makers, these goal achievement levels were considered in the model as the "official targets," although the Investment Priority Plan itself may not be the optimal program of investment to fulfill these targets. Using a proto-type of linear programming, called goal programming, under- achievement of the specified goal targets was minimized and where possible, over-achievement maximized. The optimal solution of this problem gives the investment program which best achieves the given set of goal targets. This is then one main result of the paper--given a set of goal targets and a certain stock of resources (and values for other technical parameters), the optimal program of investment is determined. The optimal program of investment is that which leads to the highest achievement levels of the given goals, or alternatively it is that program of investment which minimizes under-achievement of given goal targets or maximizes over-achievement of given goal targets. It is intuitively clear that the choice of goal targets and the relative priority weights given to each goal will influence the optimal achievement level of goals. Hence goal setting is a critical phase of decision-making. In general, policy-makers do not realize the implications of their chosen targets and therefore the chosen goal targets will most likely not be the wisest nor is the choice truly rational. Shackle defines rationality in the following manner – “Choice is rational when it conforms to a perfect knowledge of all circumstances which will affect its relevant outcome. Any gap in his (the decision-maker's) knowledge of those circumstances destroys the possibility of his demonstrating to himself a rigid connection bet- ween his chosen act and his desired state of mind, and thus leaving his choice arbitrary"*. *G.L.S. Shackle, A Scheme of Economic Theory, Cambridge University Press, 1965. p. 12 If the policy-maker knows how his choice of goal targets and relative priority weights affects the achievement levels of his given policy goals, the policy-maker can more rationally and more wisely tell his economic planner the goal targets to be optimized. This paper shows the implication of alternative goal targets other than the official BOI targets, by going through a sensitivity analysis of goals. Finally a third set of results is the determination of the effect on goal achievement levels of changes in critical technical or resource parameters. A total of fifty- two linear programming problems were solved in this paper in order to analyze the effects of changing technical and goal parameters. Some of the more important empirical findings of the paper are here enumerated. 1. All BOI official targets for foreign exchange, GNP and employment generation (for the mining industries) can be achieved, even if investible funds available is only 80 per cent of total investible fund requirements, if the optimal program of investment (as riven in this model) is adopted. This means that BOI's investment programs as given in the Investments Priorities Plan is not the most efficient investment prog ram for meeting its given goal targets. 2. The employment and GNP generation targets of BOI are easily over-achieved, while the foreign exchange generation target was difficult to achieve. It is achieved only when investible funds available is 80 per cent of total requirements. This indicates that a higher priority weight should be given to the achievement of the foreign exchange goal. Experimentation with goal priority weights showed that the achievement of the foreign exchange goal should be valued three times greater than the valuation of the GNP and employment goals. 3. The more labor intensive industries are relatively more efficient in meeting the BOI policy goal targets than the capital intensive industries. 4. Experience has shown that investible fund requirements of BOI's Investment Priorities Plan are difficult to meet. This paper shows the optimal program of investment, given the situation that only 10, 30, 50, and 100 per cent respectively of investible fund requirements can be met.Item Restricted A policy evaluation of regional dispersal of manufacturing in the Philippines(1978-11) Moran, Presentacion B.; Power, John H.Item Restricted A reappraisal of Philippine exports and economic development(1981-06) Sena, Ma. Eden D.; Jurado, Gonzalo M.Less developed countries are alleged to be vulnerable to fluctuations in export earnings as a large proportion of their national income is highly dependent on export earnings from primary products. It is also averred that these fluctuations can cause a serious impediment to the LDC's economic growth. To test whether this phenomenon runs true for the Philippines, an analysis of the short-run fluctuations in its export earnings and the effect of such fluctuations on the domestic economy was made in this study. The analysis includes two sub-periods, 1952-1964 and 1965-1977, to determine if the state of export instability in the country had changed over the years. Empirical results showed an increasing instability in export earnings from 1952 to 1977. The high dependence of the Philippines on primary exports had led to commodity and geographic concentration of exports. However, the a priori expectation that primary goods specialization and commodity and geographic concentration cause export instability were not supported by statistical results. Instead, it was found that the fluctuations in export receipts came mainly from variations in the volume of goods exported, hence to variations in supply rather than in demand. These fluctuations in export earnings had adverse effects on the economy as variations in these earnings were positively and significantly related to variations in the GNP, imports and government revenue on a current year basis and to variations in domestic capital formation and cost of living on a one-year lagged basis. Measures to counteract these effects are therefore necessary and timely to aid the beleaguered export sector of the economy.Item Restricted A semestral monetary submodel of the Philippine economy, 1967 to 1982(1985) King, Josephine A.; Montes, Manuel F.This study aims to investigate the behavior of the financial aggregates of the Philippine economy. The study is a semestral model which covers the years 1967 to 1982. The theoretical framework utilized is that of portfolio choice. Each of the three sectors identified --- individual, commercial bank, and the monetary authority --- are deemed to be rational and maximizes its own utility. The interplay of portfolio choice among the units leads to the formation of total liquidity and credit in the economy. Moreover, the interaction of the three markets--- deposits, credit, and money--- determines an equilibrium point within the financial system given their respective demand and supply components. Financial aggregates are grouped into Savings, Demand, and Time Deposits and currency in circulation. The demand for each of these financial aggregates in real terms respond significantly to its own yield. All of the financial aggregates' demand. but currency in circulation' s demand are shown to be unresponsive to per capita income. The supply for credit, on the other hand, is governed by the balance sheet constraint of the commercial banks. The variable in real terms verifies the availability doctrine. The study, in its totality, provides a sound empirical framework for policy analysis and is open to refinement should new data become available. The model contains policy variables which makes multiplier analysis feasible. Moreover, the model provides a policy objective of containing inflation rate. And it is implied in the model that the pursuance of such a policy objective can be done via a single strategy which combines the intermediate target regime and the flexible exchange rate regime.Item Restricted A simple model of the effects of wealth and deficit-financing on the Malaysian economy(1982-06) Chuah, Kim Liang; Miranda, Casimiro V. Jr.The objective of this paper is to study the effects of the different financing schemes of the government on the multiplier. This entails an investigation of the effects the stock of wealth has on private consumption and on the rate of interest. It further tests for the existence of any financial crowding-out of private investment demand. Crowding-out here means the curtailing of private investment induced through the negative effect on investment due to the income-induced rise in the interest rate. The model used includes the stock of wealth as a variable in the consumption function and the demand for money function. A government budget constraint is added to capture the crowding-out phenomenon. Due to the limited number of observations available, the ordinary least-squares method of estimation is used on the four behavioral equations. The results show that a significant influence is exerted by wealth on private consumption behavior, but its effect on interest rate is weakened by the numerous controls exercised by the Central Bank. Extreme crowding-out of financial market is not pronounced in the analysis. On the contrary, government expenditures are expansionary, even when financed by new bond issues. The increase in money supply may also have contributed in counteracting the weak contractionary effect of bond-finance via the interest rate, if this exists.Item Restricted A simulation model for copper(1982-07) Lejano, Florie M.; Velasco, Virgilio T.The present interest to build a simulation model for copper exports came about partly because of the vogue over econometric commodity studies, and also because the current experience of copper companies as producers of a traditional commodity is both prevalent relative to the experience of producers of the other traditional exports, at the same time unique with regards to its being a capital-intensive industry. The basic criterion to validate the models surveyed here and that which was developed later was the ex-post simulation method where the model able to produce the computed estimates of copper exports with the least variance from the actual series of exports was valued as 'best'. The 'best' model indicated that Philippine copper exports supply is largely vulnerable to the activity index of only one market, which is Japan and that the real growth of exports in the future shall be pursued at the expense of the decreasing real copper price. The pressure on copper companies is strong because their sunk costs and fixed investments are substantial. The writer, addressing both the copper companies and the government, suggested ways to possibly mitigate the ill effects of the validated structure on future operations.Item Restricted A study of food consumption and expenditure patterns of Philippine households(1980-04) Bennagen, Ma. Eugenia C.; Orbos, Rosita S.Food accounts form the largest personal expenditure item in developing countries like the Philippines. A study of the food consumption patterns of Filipinos is therefore of prime importance. Being an archipelagic country, patterns of food consumption within the Philippines may be expected to differ by region. Furthermore, being an economy where income is unequally distributed, food consumption patterns are likewise expected to vary, among different income level groups. In this paper, consumption patterns for 10 major food groups, and 24 individual food stuffs are examined by region and by income level. Factors influencing food consumption habits of Filipino families are analyzed using regression analysis. Household income and household size are the explanatory variables included in the model to explain variation in food consumption levels and expenditures. The study, based on a nationwide household food consumption survey, reveals that the proportion of income spent on food by an average Filipino household is very high -- 73 percent. Expenditure on cereals and seafood alone accounts for more than half of total food outlay (54 percent). Average per capita consumption levels show that Filipino families adequately meet only the recommended allowance for cereals and cereal products. All the rest fall short of the recommended allowance. Food consumption patterns show diversity by region and by income level. Luzon households have higher consumption levels of meat, eggs and dairy products, while households in Mindanao consume more fruits and vegetables. Households in the Visayas, where average income is lowest, have the highest consumption of root- crops, bulbs and tubers. By income level, high income households enjoy the highest per capita consumption levels of all the major food groups, except root crops. With respect to the extent to which Filipino households respond to changes in income and household size, the food elasticities obtained were all less than unity indicating that demand for food is generally inelastic.Item Restricted A study of Indonesia's external adjustments using monetary approach 1969-1990(1992-01) Paddu, Abdul Hamid; Tan, Edita A.The study aims to: 1) test whether the monetary approach explains the external adjustments behavior of Indonesia from 1969 to 1990, 2) prove by empirical means whether the monetary approach is relevant and advantageous to Indonesia, and 3) provide empirical support to the monetary approach vis-a-vis other approaches to external adjustments. The methodology involves testing first the two assumptions of the monetary model, namely, the price and interest rate arbitrage (unified goods market and unified bond market) and the existence of a stable money demand function. Having these assumptions held, the estimation of Indonesia's external adjustments (fluctuation in the balance of payments in 1969- 1978 and fluctuation in the exchange rate in 1978- 1990) was estimated using the monetary model developed for this purpose. The estimation procedures used included the ordinary least squares, two-stage least squares, and the Cochrane-Orcutt transformations. The results of the estimation confirmed that in the case of Indonesia's balance of payments, there is a one-to-one substitution of domestic asset for foreign asset, giving support to the hypothesis that the balance of payments is a monetary phenomenon. Estimation of fluctuation in Exchange rate suggest that the actual behavior of exchange rate in the period 1978 - 1990 is highly consistent with prediction of the monetary model. Fluctuation in exchange rate of Indonesia are largely explained by such variables as domestic money demand, domestic income and expected inflation, consistent with the hypothesis of the monetary approach. The study, therefore, provides empirical evidence to the relevance and usefulness of the monetary approach to account changes in the balance of payments and the exchange rate in Indonesia.Item Restricted A study of official development assistance to the Philippines, FY 1952-72(1973-10-29) Bulan, Mila L.; Castro, Amado A.Item Restricted A study of Philippine tax performance(1975-04) Caballes, Aida Z.; Jurado, Gonzalo M.Item Restricted A study of property and entrepreneurial income in the Philippines, 1956-71(1975-03) Sta. Romana, Leonardo L. III; Mangahas, Mahar