The BRI effect: impact of the belt and road initiative on trade
| dc.contributor.author | Mengua, Vina Naomi D. | |
| dc.contributor.author | Sasing, Marianne T. | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2024-07-30T02:15:25Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2024-07-30T02:15:25Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2022-02-21 | |
| dc.description.abstract | Since its launch in 2013, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has been regarded as one of the most historical and influential developments in the international community given its projected effects on the global economy. This paper contributes to the growing literature on the BRI by testing for the significant relationships between trade and BRI, specifically through BRI’s effects on infrastructure and foreign direct investment (FDI) in participating countries. The paper uses data on 52 BRI-participating countries from 2010 to 2018 and employs Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimation on a fixed effects gravity model. In particular, the model adds interaction variables capturing the influence of BRI on the trade effects of a country’s level of infrastructure and FDI from China. The results suggest that BRI participation more than triples the bilateral trade with China, with exports increasing by 232.32 percent. While this estimate far exceeds initial predictions, it is consistent with expectations when average treatment effect methods are accounted for. However, the study obtains insufficient evidence to support the claim that BRI participation boosts the effect of infrastructure on exports. This could be naturally due to large infrastructure projects requiring long-term horizons to produce returns. Further, the study finds that BRI participation weakens the effect of OFDI on exports by 13.59 percent. This could be explained by the fact that a majority of the FDI inflows in BRI economies come from non-BRI economies, suggesting that BRI also attracts non-Chinese FDI and thus makes Chinese FDI less impactful on trade. | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://selib.upd.edu.ph/etdir/handle/123456789/143 | |
| dc.language.iso | en | |
| dc.subject | Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) | |
| dc.subject | international trade | |
| dc.subject | economic integration | |
| dc.subject | foreign direct investment | |
| dc.subject | trade infrastructure | |
| dc.title | The BRI effect: impact of the belt and road initiative on trade | |
| dc.type | Thesis |