Guess who's next: a study on the predicting capability of pre-election surveys
Date
2010-10
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Abstract
The growing demand for pre-election surveys and the increasing criticisms for them caught the attention of the researchers to investigate these kinds of surveys and what structures them to become predictive instruments for actual election results. The demand for pre-election surveys became a source of criticism for some as it is said to produce implications in terms of the voting behavior of the voting public. Critics say that these surveys condition the minds of the voting public creating a bandwagon effect. This paper however argues that by looking at the technical specifications of these surveys, the behavioral aspect of the voting public would be captured with it. With a change in leadership, elections are considered to be turning points either for the better or for the worse of the country's economic condition. Hence, pre-election surveys are important tools that would provide the public an insight on what could be the future of the country in terms of its leadership and growth potentials. In this paper, the technical specifications of pre-election surveys are closely looked at and are taken into consideration as to which variables are possibly helpful in ensuring an accurate survey result. Variables such as size, frequency, proximity, sponsor and position are closely examined to estimate which variables are significant in explaining the accuracy of pre-election survey. The significance of these variables, through the datasets gathered from the Social Weather Station (SWS), is estimated using a linear regression model. The 1998, 2004, and 2010 Elections are the three significant election periods taken into consideration in this research. This research aims to provide insights on what variables polling companies can further focus or improve on to enhance the accuracy of their pre-election survey results. The results of the research shed light as to whether pre-election surveys provide real and credible information to the public, aiming less in influencing how the voters should vote, but rather providing a picture of the voting public preferences.
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Keywords
Election, Politics, Pre-election survey, Politics prediction, Voting behavior