The price effects of typhoon exposure on the Philippine rice markets: a stacked event study approach
| dc.contributor.advisor | Sabarillo, Anthony G. | |
| dc.contributor.author | Espiritu, Ariana Ysabel S. | |
| dc.contributor.author | Pangilinan, Nasya Lauren S.C. | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2026-02-26T08:17:27Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2026-02-26T08:17:27Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2026-01-06 | |
| dc.description.abstract | With the Philippines remaining as one of the world’s most disaster-prone countries, understanding the inflationary impact of typhoons on rice is critical for food security. This thesis utilizes a Stacked Event Study approach to evaluate whether there is a shift in provincial-level retail rice price dynamics following the occurrence of tropical cyclones. With the usage of PSA’s Retail Price Survey data on regular-milled (RMR) and well-milled rice (WMR) prices from 2012 to 2020, together with Galloway et al.’s (2025) tropical cyclone data, findings show that on the month of its landfall, the occurrence of a Class 6 typhoon or Super Typhoon causes a 2.3% increase in RMR prices, while for WMR, a 3.2% increase. These price effects hold at a sustained average of a 3.4% and 4.6% increase across the next six (6) months for RMR and WMR prices, respectively. For both RMR and WMR, Class 0 storms or tropical depressions were found to have decreased rice prices following the event; however, we take caution in concluding causality due to inconsistencies with harvesting cycles and the potential effect of the productive rainfall. Tropical cyclones of Classes 1 to 5, on the other hand, did not produce statistically significant results. These results suggest policy implications for more targeted government interventions to reduce shocks to the Philippine rice markets following typhoons. | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://selib.upd.edu.ph/etdir/handle/123456789/5215 | |
| dc.language.iso | en | |
| dc.subject | "typhoons | |
| dc.subject | tropical cyclones | |
| dc.subject | rice | |
| dc.subject | rice prices | |
| dc.subject | regular-milled rice (RMR) | |
| dc.subject | well-milled rice (WMR) | |
| dc.subject | stacked-event study | |
| dc.subject | Philippines" | |
| dc.title | The price effects of typhoon exposure on the Philippine rice markets: a stacked event study approach | |
| dc.type | Thesis |