The impact of oil prices on Metro Rail Transit ridership
Date
2012-04
Authors
Maranan, Jose Karlo R.
Ng, Kyle MAtthew T.
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Abstract
Metro Rail Transit has experienced a steady increase in ridership through the years leading to congestion in its trains. Concurrently, oil products consumers suffer from rising oil prices. In this light, we aim to analyze the behavior of both current and potential MRT commuters with respect to the increasing oil prices. To this end, we conducted an extensive review of relevant literature and gathered · empirical data for econometric analysis. Our analysis looks into the effects of oil prices and other variables on MRT ridership. Lagged values of variables were included to detect the reaction of commuters to changing prices. Our results show that the commuters' behavior is barely affected by changes in oil prices. Lagged income and prices appear significant in determining transport demand. Furthermore, price or tax policies have no considerable effect on congestion, given the rapid increase in the commuting population, and it may only burden the citizenry in the short run. Still, they are needed to reduce government subsidies and generate revenue to expand capacity and improve service.
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Keywords
MRT, oil prices, transport demand, commuter behavior