Connections, connections, connections: the weights of presidential endorsements and total expenditures in 2019 Philippine midterm election outcomes
Date
2022-01
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Abstract
Political campaigns and their successes appear to hinge on various factors, depending on the
context. Researchers have conducted studies on the impact of candidates’ family networks, social and
celebrity statuses, and genders, among other things, on voter perception in Philippine elections. Given the
limited scope of existing literature, this study seeks to assess the weights of two other determinants—
endorsements by incumbent government officials, specifically President Rodrigo Duterte and Davao City
mayor Sara Duterte-Carpio, and campaign expenditures—that possibly contributed to the vote tallies of
specific candidates during the 2019 senatorial elections and create a model than can be used to predict
candidate vote tallies. Several regression models are employed to gauge such effects. First, a logistic
regression is used to produce probability predictions for endorsements and expenditures, as well as certain
candidate attributes like sex, incumbency status, and dynastic links. Second, a multiple regression model
including all variables is generated and assessed in terms of its fit to the data. Lastly, linear regressions are
executed to check for robustness. The results show endorsements to be significant in predicting winning
probabilities, and both endorsements and expenditures to be significantly robust in determining raw votes.
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Keywords
political campaign, election