The effects of oil price shocks on Philippine sectoral and national output
Date
2018-04-25
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Abstract
This paper analyzes how oil price shocks impact the real dis aggregate and aggregate economic output of the Philippines. Using four primary variables (oil prices, national and sectoral output, inflation, and exchange rate) and three dummy variables (accounting for the Asian Financial Crisis, the Global Financial Crisis, and the Dot-com Bubble), the econometric analysis was done through two primary methods: the Vector Auto regression (VAR) Model and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Results showed that oil price changes have a significant and positive effect on the Manufacturing sector’s domestic product, while an insignificant but positive relationship exists between oil price movements and the Philippines’ Gross Domestic Product. In the context of the other Philippine economic sectors, however, changes in oil prices were not shown to have any significant effects.
Description
Keywords
Oil price, Philippines