Towards a smoke-free Philippines: impacts of price and non-price tobacco regulations on youth cigarette consumption in the Philippines
Date
2023-07-11
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Abstract
Cigarette Smoking is one of the leading causes of death in the Philippines, with 112,000 people dying annually from this and other related tobacco use [GBD, 2019]. With the worsening tobacco epidemic, the World Health Organization (WHO) crafted a framework to lessen cigarette consumption and mitigate its negative effects on society. The strategies under this are known as the MPOWER, which uses price and non-price regulations to reduce
cigarette demand. In the Philippines, the primary laws enforcing these mechanisms are the Tobacco Regulation Act of 2003 (RA 9211) and Graphic Health Warnings Law (RA 10643) for non-price regulations, and the SIN Tax Reform Law of 2012 (RA 10963). With adult cigarette smoking often initiated during adolescence, there is a need to study the effectiveness
of these legislations among the youth demand for cigarettes [CDC, 2022]. The paper uses cross-sectional data from the WHO Global Youth Tobacco Survey (GYTS) for the years 2000, 2004, 2007, 2011, 2015, and 2019. Using a Two-Part Model of Cigarette Consumption developed by Cragg [2017], the demand for cigarettes was divided into smoking prevalence and smoking intensity to respectively refer to the probability of being a smoker and the number of cigarette sticks consumed per day. The probabilities for smoking prevalence factoring in price and non-price variables was determined through a logit regression. Meanwhile, the smoking intensity utilized an OLS regression for the same explanatory variables. Non-price regulations include advertising bans, warning labels, age and locational sale restrictions, and smoking bans in public spaces. On the other hand, price elasticity
was used to evaluate the effects of price changes on the youth’s cigarette consumption. The results of the regression analysis showed that while most non-price and price regulations have
a significant and negative impact on smoking decision and demand, their marginal effects remain low – implying minimal impact on both dependent variables. Meanwhile, the total price elasticity indicates that total cigarette price demand is generally inelastic for
adolescents in the Philippines. The results suggest that aside from strengthening anti- smoking regulations prescribed under the MPOWER package, the different strategies should also be tailored towards the behavior of the youth.
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Keywords
global youth tobacco survey, tobacco regulations, sin tax, youth cigarette consumption, Two-Part Model of Tobacco Consumption