An econometric analysis of intraregional trade with China towards an east asian monetary union
| dc.contributor.author | Lua, Lorelei Lorraine L. | |
| dc.contributor.author | Ngo, Kelvin Lester G. | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2025-01-17T03:51:24Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2025-01-17T03:51:24Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2006-03 | |
| dc.description.abstract | This paper examines whether there is a significant degree of intra-industry trade among developing countries in East Asia, and whether this can be a growing basis for an eventual monetary union based on the optimum currency area criteria. In this case, should countries in East Asia (Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand) discard the Rupiah, Yen, Won, Ringgit, Philippine Peso, Singapore dollar, and Baht, respectively to employ a single currency anchored on the Yuan; thus, forming one great currency-the East Asian Yuan. Developing countries that peg their currencies to that of a larger country or to a basket of currencies expect that the union will create a single central bank that will help control inflation and create a credible monetary policy. Still over and over again, currency pegs have shown to be intrinsically unstable in the face of speculative assaults. The authors use two measures for quantifying causations and correlations between each of the 7 (seven) East Asian countries. Granger Causality Tests effectively showed the great scale of intra-industry trade within the top 6 (six) import and export commodities of each country. A regression model was constructed using imports, exports, foreign direct investments, and gross national products of the United States and the abovementioned countries as relevant variables. The parallelism and asymmetry of the specified economies in East Asia's direction of trade, the validation of intra-industry trade and the causation between exports and imports affirms the possible existence of an optimal currency area (OCA) in East Asia. A common currency peg in East Asia is viable as countries are seen to be more of comrades than competitors, although choosing which basket of currencies, or anchor currency to be used it still debatable. It is recommended that further studies consider the use of exchange rate fluctuations, regularities and asymmetries in shocks, and the stability of a country's economy brought about by local political effects be taken into account. In addition, the use of alternative model representations for an East Asian Monetary Union within which counterfactual simulations may be performed is recommended as an area for future research. | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://selib.upd.edu.ph/etdir/handle/123456789/4104 | |
| dc.language.iso | en | |
| dc.subject | Econometrics | |
| dc.subject | International trade | |
| dc.subject | Trade | |
| dc.subject | Monetary union | |
| dc.subject | Asian monetary policy | |
| dc.subject | Monetary policy | |
| dc.subject | East Asian | |
| dc.subject | China trade | |
| dc.title | An econometric analysis of intraregional trade with China towards an east asian monetary union | |
| dc.type | Thesis |