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    Determinants of electoral success: the 2010 and 2013 senatorial elections
    (2013-09) Co, Anne Bernadine L.; Laset, Eleonor Marie E.; Pernia, Ernesto M.
    The elections have always been an entertaining period in the Philippines. This is the time where all of the voting population is equal - all of us have one vote to cast. This is the time where we exercise democracy and elect the people we feel would lift us out of poverty. This is also the time where the candidates cram to have a polished image and make sure their names won't be tainted with dirt. Because of this we ask, what would be the most effective way for a candidate to win? What qualities should he posses? And how does the Filipino vote? The study aims to determine the factors that will prove to be the most effective and important for an aspiring candidate's success in the elections. It can be a road map for the candidates but it can also be helpful in raising awareness to the Filipino to vote wisely and carefully.
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    Beauty and electoral success
    (2009-10) Galvez, Anna Isabella C.; Lumbera, Beverly T.; Desierto, Desiree Alferez
    This paper studies how beauty affects the electoral success of a candidate in the University Student Council (USC) elections in the University of the Philippines, Diliman. Beauty confers many advantages to a person as observed in the labor market and in the political arena. We test the hypothesis that a better-looking candidate has higher chances of being elected into office in the local University Elections. We use the following variables: ratings of beauty, competence, trustworthiness, gender, number of organizations, and incumbency to estimate two models: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Logistic regressions. This paper is the first of its kind to establish such relationship between beauty and electoral success in the university and in the country. Using cross pooled data of the candidates from 2007 to 2009, our results show negative effects of beauty using OLS and positive marginal effects of all the variables using Logit regression. There is no definite effect of beauty on electoral success in the sample we examined.
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    Who votes in the Philippines? determinants of voter participation
    (2010-10) Bantigue. Agnes May B.; Fabic, Marie Olivia F.; Alonzo, Ruperto
    Voting is one form of letting people exercise their rights as citizens of a country. Although studies have been made attempting to pinpoint the determinants of turnout or voting decision in general, not one focuses on the factors in the Philippines. This study provides an analysis for the determinants of propensity to vote of an individual in the country, where voter turnout had been consistently low compared to other democratic countries. Applying Riker and Odershook's [1995] Theory of Calculus of Voting and several other literature, the researchers identify four factor groups of explanatory variables, namely, individual's attributes, individual's self- assessment of current condition, political factors and group affiliation. Using the 2001 Second Quarter and the 2004 Third Quarter Social Weather Station (SWS) data, the variable whether voted or not in the elections is used as the dependent variable and is regressed using two models. The first model provides a comparison of the magnitudes and inconsistencies of the explanatory variables using the two datasets and the pooled dataset. The second model, an expanded model, includes several explanatory variables focusing on political factors. Using Binary Logit regression analysis, results show that locale, age, educational attainment and political affiliation, being the strongest, affect an individual's propensity to vote. However, results in several wealth factors are inconsistent but bear the same sign with other variables in similar classifications. This led the researchers to recommend policies on voter education and on elections itself. To account for the results of wealth factors, the researchers also recommend addressing issues on income inequality.
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    The economics of voting: a closer look at the determinants of voting behavior in the Philippine house of representatives
    (2003-10) Carranza, Janeca C.; Ferrer, Jenny Lou L.
    This paper delves into the determinants of voting behavior in the House of Representatives by focusing on ten bills of national significance passed in the 12th Congress. The theoretical framework is based on the premise that legislative voting behavior may be indicators of legislative priorities and interests. Three factors influencing congressional voting are identified: (1) constituency characteristics, (2) ideology or self-interest motivators, and (3) political affiliation. Analyses are made using binary and multinomial logit regression as well as aggregate (linear) regression to examine the extent to which the variables influence House votes. It finds only very limited support for the thesis that constituency characteristics are important determinants of Congressional voting patterns. Ideology variables apparently had little effect on the votes, although length of term appears to be having significant influence. In addition, no specific pattern can be concluded as to the direction on which the representatives' ideological position affect voting decisions. Political affiliation is seen as the most significant of all the variables. This can be explained by the political benefits that can be reaped by coalition members when voting towards the general vote of the coalition.
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    Guess who's next: a study on the predicting capability of pre-election surveys
    (2010-10) Rodriguez, Daryl Sol M.; Arellano, Billy Jackson
    The growing demand for pre-election surveys and the increasing criticisms for them caught the attention of the researchers to investigate these kinds of surveys and what structures them to become predictive instruments for actual election results. The demand for pre-election surveys became a source of criticism for some as it is said to produce implications in terms of the voting behavior of the voting public. Critics say that these surveys condition the minds of the voting public creating a bandwagon effect. This paper however argues that by looking at the technical specifications of these surveys, the behavioral aspect of the voting public would be captured with it. With a change in leadership, elections are considered to be turning points either for the better or for the worse of the country's economic condition. Hence, pre-election surveys are important tools that would provide the public an insight on what could be the future of the country in terms of its leadership and growth potentials. In this paper, the technical specifications of pre-election surveys are closely looked at and are taken into consideration as to which variables are possibly helpful in ensuring an accurate survey result. Variables such as size, frequency, proximity, sponsor and position are closely examined to estimate which variables are significant in explaining the accuracy of pre-election survey. The significance of these variables, through the datasets gathered from the Social Weather Station (SWS), is estimated using a linear regression model. The 1998, 2004, and 2010 Elections are the three significant election periods taken into consideration in this research. This research aims to provide insights on what variables polling companies can further focus or improve on to enhance the accuracy of their pre-election survey results. The results of the research shed light as to whether pre-election surveys provide real and credible information to the public, aiming less in influencing how the voters should vote, but rather providing a picture of the voting public preferences.
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    BALLOT-P(e)INOY: an analysis of the 1998, 2001 and 2004 elections in the Philippines and the Filipino voting behavior
    (2008-10) Baltazar, Kristian Paul R.; Macasaet, Dino S.; Esguerra, Emmanuel
    This paper aims to study elections particularly the arena of Philippine politics. Furthermore, it attempts to quantitatively measure and analyze the Filipino voting behavior with the time frame from 1998 to 2004 elections. The study employs binary probit regressions for the determination of significant factors that affected the vote for the winning presidential candidate during the 1998 and 2004 presidential elections using the exit polls surveys conducted by the Social Weather Stations (SWS) during the 1998, 2001, and 2004 national elections. Furthermore, binary probit regressions were used to test whether or not the presidential choice affected the vice presidential choice, while tobit regressions were used for the senatorial elections in 1998, and 2004 elections to also test whether or not the presidential and vice presidential votes affected the combination of senatorial candidates the voter preferred. These regressions were done to test the consistency of preferences of voters. Results showed that voters changed their preference from the 1998 to the 2001 elections, while stayed consistent with their preference from the 2001 to the 2004 elections. In addition, it was also found out that the presidential and vice presidential votes influenced the senatorial choice of the voters in both the 1998 and 2004 elections. Different voter and voting participation theories were also tested in this study. It was found out that among the different theories, the policies and information voting theory was not reflected based on the results of the 1998 elections, while the party identification, political parties and social groups voting theories were very evident in all three elections.