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Item Restricted The effect of domestic petroleum price movements on pollution from transportation using uber movement data(2017) Cleto, Marianne Ruth L. ; Morada, Anna Theresa L. ; Jandoc, Karl Robert L.The Philippines is currently experiencing rapid economic growth leading to worsening travel time and a concomitant increase in air pollution. Literature on developed countries show that drivers have high price elasticities when oil prices increase due to an increase in tax causing an adjustment on consumer decisions and may imply an even greater long-run effect on traffic congestion and air quality. The study employs a two- stage regression model to illustrate the effect of domestic oil prices on the average travel speed of vehicles and consequently on Total Suspended Particle (TSP) concentrate. The results show that imposing a 10 peso-tax increase on petroleum products such as gasoline as proposed by the Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion (TRAIN) Bill positively affects average travel speed by 2.1 km/hr and negatively affects TSP concentrate levels by more than 15 μg/Ncm. Thus, justifying the environmental context behind the TRAIN bill to internalize pollution caused by transportation.Item Restricted Effect of changes in oil prices on the incidence of road accidents in Metro Manila(2018-04) Gaudiel, Gianne Patricia P. ; Pabustan, Renz Paulo M. ; Jandoc, Karl Robert L.With the increasing trend of road fatalities domestically, we aim to determine whether road accidents are driven by oil price fluctuations. We used the Metro Manila Accidents Recording and Analysis System (MMARAS) Database, crude prices from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), and local retail oil prices from the Department of Energy. Since domestic oil prices are only available from 2014 to 2017, we made predictions of domestic oil prices of the years prior to 2014 using a fitted relationship of domestic prices to Brent. We determined the final model by eliminating some of the lagged Brent values using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). We then used these predicted domestic prices in examining the relationship between accidents and fuel prices. In our regression runs, we successively introduced various lags in fuel prices and used Newey West standard errors to account for possible autocorrelation of the error terms. The results show that contemporaneous prices of oil have statistically significant positive relationship with the number of accidents. However, the effect washes away when lags are introduced. The regression runs with public utility vehicles register lower adjusted R-squared, suggesting that there may be other sources of variations in accidents for their vehicle types.Item Restricted The impact of oil prices on Metro Rail Transit ridership(2012-04) Maranan, Jose Karlo R.; Ng, Kyle MAtthew T.; Pernia, Ernesto M.Metro Rail Transit has experienced a steady increase in ridership through the years leading to congestion in its trains. Concurrently, oil products consumers suffer from rising oil prices. In this light, we aim to analyze the behavior of both current and potential MRT commuters with respect to the increasing oil prices. To this end, we conducted an extensive review of relevant literature and gathered · empirical data for econometric analysis. Our analysis looks into the effects of oil prices and other variables on MRT ridership. Lagged values of variables were included to detect the reaction of commuters to changing prices. Our results show that the commuters' behavior is barely affected by changes in oil prices. Lagged income and prices appear significant in determining transport demand. Furthermore, price or tax policies have no considerable effect on congestion, given the rapid increase in the commuting population, and it may only burden the citizenry in the short run. Still, they are needed to reduce government subsidies and generate revenue to expand capacity and improve service.