Politics of local elections: an analysis on the fiscal performance of incumbent city mayors vis-a-vis electoral results
Date
2011-10-19
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Abstract
What constitutes good local politics? What trends in the fiscal performance of incumbent politicians explain their election This This study hypothesizes (i) (i) additional government spending on social services, specifically health and education, and economic services positively affect (ii) outcome; and (ii) the level and nature of income sources are significant It re- election results. It also assumes that political clan membership increases an incumbents central block transfer, and thus, its re-election probability. A 2010
election regression analysis of the 2010 election data and 2007-2009 fiscal data are presented to show Results different trends that characterize election outcome. Results show that There is spending that positively characterizes election results. There appears a positive correlation between additional spending on social services such However, education and health, and the likelihood of re-election. However, contrary On existing literature, economic expenditures seem to have nonconstructive effects. On the other hand, analysis on the effect of income generation shows weak and inconclusive results as the trends are similar for both winning and losing clusters: both groups show increasing levels of income, although it is the non-winning that produces higher increments over the years. Nevertheless, the hypothesis that political clan membership increases an incumbent's central block transfer is validated, although it does not prove to necessarily translate into winning. Moreover, the electoral costs of taxation is evident in the results as those who have higher increments in the level of tax revenue belong to the non-winning set.
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Keywords
Election results, Fiscal performance, Panel data regression