Modelling the relationship between tropical storms and the internal migration decision in the Philippines
Date
2018-03
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Abstract
This paper explores the probability of internal (i.e. inter-provincial) migration in the Philippines
as a result of tropical storms or typhoons. Using household head characteristics obtained from census of
population and housing data and controlling for provincial factors like wages and employment in different
provinces, we attempt to show a nationwide likelihood of internal migration for three five-year time
periods - 1985-1990, 1995-2000, and 2005-2010 - and find out if tropical storms which occurred during
those time periods had a significant role to play in the migration decision. Our study employs two models.
In the first model, called the Frequency-Damage model, our findings suggest that, while the number of
storms in a particular region and the total damages they cause are individually rather weak, their
combined effects have a much larger magnitude and in fact make migration likely for the periods 1995-
2000 and 2005-2010. However, non-typhoon-related variables, especially employment differentials and
other income differentials, generally have a larger effect than typhoon-related factors. In the second
model, called the Push-Pull model, we determine that tropical storms have a minimal but nonzero effect
on the strength of provincial characteristics to induce internal migration. In particular, tropical storms
enhanced the positive migratory effect of both higher wages and higher employment rates in the periods
1985-1990 and 2005-2010 and of higher other income levels in the period 1985-1990.
Description
Keywords
migration, tropical storms, modelling, disasters