Impact of electric vehicle adoption on fuel consumption and electricity demand in the Philippines
Date
2026-05-01
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Abstract
"This study investigates how electric vehicle (EV) adoption affects fuel demand for
internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) and overall fossil fuel use in the
Philippines. Annual data from 1990–2024 are analyzed using Autoregressive
Distributed Lag (ARDL) models for gasoline and diesel consumption, while annual
data from 2003–2024 are analyzed using first-differenced Ordinary Least Squares
(OLS) regressions to examine the relationship between EV adoption, electricity
consumption, and fossil-based electricity generation. Results show a stable long-run
relationship in the gasoline model, where gasoline prices significantly reduce fuel
demand while GDP positively affects consumption. However, EV adoption does not
exhibit a statistically significant long-run effect on gasoline demand, with only weak
short-run substitution effects observed. In contrast, the diesel model shows weak
evidence of cointegration, suggesting that diesel demand is influenced mainly by
short-run dynamics. The findings also indicate that EV adoption does not yet
significantly affect electricity consumption although increases in electricity demand
significantly raise fossil-based electricity generation. Overall, current EV adoption
remains too limited to generate measurable fossil fuel offsets in the Philippines."
Description
Keywords
"Electric vehicles, Fuel demand, ARDL, OLS, Fossil fuel generation, Philippines, Electricity consumption"